Just like any draft, this one has many overrated players. Below are the prospects we believe will be drafted higher than they deserve to be. These players won’t necessarily be busts, but they won’t be as productive as their draft spot suggests.
Berry is an elite athlete who has been hyped by some as possibly the draft’s best defensive player. We do not believe he measures up to that lofty status.
He has been regarded as a game-changing player in coverage and run support, but in film study we have been shocked at how often he was uninvolved in games and did not make much of an impact.
He flashes a willingness to come up quickly in run support when he is lined up deep. But even when he does, he doesn’t fight through blocks well and is an inconsistent tackler.
His tackling technique needs a lot of work, and he also must be more consistent at reaching the sideline to support cornerbacks in deep coverage.
We like Berry’s athleticism and his ability to cover slot receivers in man coverage, and we think he is best suited to play cornerback. We think he should be a second- or third-round pick, but he is likely to be selected in the top 10 as a safety. We expect him to struggle to become a consistent NFL safety.
Cody is a mountain of a man. Sources have told us he weighed in the 380s during much of his college career. On film, he flashed the strength to be a force at holding the point of attack against double-teams and shutting down running games. When he plays with base and leverage, uses hands quickly and aggressively and competes hard, he holds his ground, sheds blocks and disrupts running plays between the tackles.
However, he often gets upright at the snap, does not use his hands well to keep blockers from getting a hold of him and can be sealed and ridden out of the play. For a player with his natural size and strength, he is not nearly as dominant as he should be.
Because he is overweight, his range is limited to between the guards and he often doesn’t get pressure on the pocket. If he could reduce his weight to the 330-340 range, he would be a much-improved player who could likely produce up to his talent level. But there are serious concerns about his ability to get in shape and stay in shape.
Because so many teams have switched to the 3-4, Cody’s value has increased, but drafting him brings great risk. In the games we evaluated, Cody played 15 to 25 snaps and was not a player who made a consistent impact.
He will likely be drafted in the second or third round by a team desperate for a nose tackle, but we think he will always have weight issues and will never develop into the elite nose tackle he has the size and strength to be.
Dunlap reminds us of Jets bust Vernon Gholston. He is well-built, with the quickness, explosive burst and raw power that few ends have. That said, he was outperformed in almost every game last season by Jermaine Cunningham, who played on the opposite side and does not have anywhere close to the same athleticism.
Dunlap does not explode off the snap and often pops straight up and makes no impact. Far too often, he isn’t even noticeable. But on a few snaps each game — sometimes as many as five — he shows the strength, power, explosiveness and hand use to jolt and defeat tackles easily and close on the quarterback in a flash.
Dunlap shined at Florida’s pro day, where he looked like a rare athlete and convinced many doubters he is worth a gamble in the first round. In the end, though, we think Dunlap will struggle mightily to become the productive, impact starter first-round picks are expected to be. Look for him to be in and out of the starting lineup because of his inability to consistently make plays and impact games.
Coleman is tough, smart and instinctive with very good straight-line speed. Though he was not an impact player in 2009, he was consistently around the ball making tackles.
Throughout the season, we kept hearing from different sources that he was improving and that led to him moving up draft boards.
In our view, he is a classic overachiever. He was productive in college because of excellent intangibles but will struggle greatly to sustain that production. Though he is expected to be drafted in the third round, he should be a fifth- or sixth-round pick whose best chance to contribute is as a backup safety and special teams player.
For more than 640 player scouting reports from Lande and his team of former NFL scouts — plus updated Mock Draft, Super 99 rankings and more — go to warroom.sportingnews.com.