In every fourth February, athletes from all over the world convene in exotic foreign cities (except when the games are played in the U.S.) for the Winter Olympics.
In every February, pro football players from all over the country convene in Indianapolis for the Underwear Olympics, aka the NFL Combine.
Though no medals will be awarded, the men who run the fastest, jump the highest, and/or lift 225 pounds the most times while wearing T-shirts and shorts could be poised to earn more money in July, based on the precise moment when they hear their names called out in April.
Jerry Rice didn’t overwhelm anyone in pre-draft workouts. He did in the NFL.
The Underwear Olympics process has little or no relevance to the sport of football. As we’ve heard time and again over the years, a football player needs to be able to run 40 yards in a straight line only on one of two occasions — when something very good has happened, and when something very bad has happened.
And yet scouts continue to obsess over the Underwear Olympics, which provide tangible data regarding a transition process from college football to pro football that will be driven largely by intangibles like heart, desire, and the ability to take repeated shots to the chops from a grown man.
Because there’s no way to know whether a player who played well among college-caliber players will be able to thrive when competing against the best of the best that more than 120 universities had to offer over the course of a decade or longer, NFL teams rely on the Underwear Olympics to provide superficial justification for decisions that ultimately are made at a far more visceral level. Seasoned coaches and scouts develop a sense for separating the skilled players who genuinely love football from the guys who are pretending to love it in order to get paid, but if a mistake is made based on a hunch that isn’t supported by hard evidence, seasoned coaches and scouts quickly become unemployed seasoned coaches and scouts.
So the teams rely on the Underwear Olympics to help provide a safe harbor for risks that don’t pan out. If, after all, a player’s numbers measure up favorably to others at the same position, it’ll be a little bit harder for ownership to hold the front office and/or the coaching staff accountable for wasting a draft pick and the ensuing bonus payment and salary on a guy who’s out of the league faster than Ryan Leaf.
What does any of it mean? Not all that much. Receiver Jerry Rice’s talent suggested that, in hindsight, he should have been the first player drafted in 1985; his inability to run really fast without pads or a helmet and with no football in the air left him available when the 49ers used the 16th pick in the draft.
Then there’s Vernon Gholston. The Jets linebacker has become this generation’s Mike Mamula — a player who can run and jump and lift and who looks like a monster but who gets lost when it’s time to put on the uniform and make things happen on the field.
It doesn’t make the Underwear Olympics meaningless. But they can be very misleading. And the best teams understand that the numbers and the measurements generated represent a piece of a much larger puzzle for which the answer won’t come until months if not years after the pre-draft obsession has subsided.
By then, of course, the focus will have shifted to the next crop of incoming rookies, or the next. Or the next. It’s one of the strange realities of the annual player selection process. We put hundreds of kids under the microscope through April, and then we forget about most of them once the real work starts in July and August, when teams find out the one thing they’ll never know between now and draft day: Whether players who were able to perform well at the college level will become big men on an NFL campus — or whether they’ll be among the many who never find their way against the highest level of competition.
Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.
In every fourth February, athletes from all over the world convene in exotic foreign cities (except when the games are played in the U.S.) for the Winter Olympics.
In every February, pro football players from all over the country convene in Indianapolis for the Underwear Olympics, aka the NFL Combine.
Though no medals will be awarded, the men who run the fastest, jump the highest, and/or lift 225 pounds the most times while wearing T-shirts and shorts could be poised to earn more money in July, based on the precise moment when they hear their names called out in April.
Jerry Rice didn’t overwhelm anyone in pre-draft workouts. He did in the NFL.
The Underwear Olympics process has little or no relevance to the sport of football. As we’ve heard time and again over the years, a football player needs to be able to run 40 yards in a straight line only on one of two occasions — when something very good has happened, and when something very bad has happened.
And yet scouts continue to obsess over the Underwear Olympics, which provide tangible data regarding a transition process from college football to pro football that will be driven largely by intangibles like heart, desire, and the ability to take repeated shots to the chops from a grown man.
Because there’s no way to know whether a player who played well among college-caliber players will be able to thrive when competing against the best of the best that more than 120 universities had to offer over the course of a decade or longer, NFL teams rely on the Underwear Olympics to provide superficial justification for decisions that ultimately are made at a far more visceral level. Seasoned coaches and scouts develop a sense for separating the skilled players who genuinely love football from the guys who are pretending to love it in order to get paid, but if a mistake is made based on a hunch that isn’t supported by hard evidence, seasoned coaches and scouts quickly become unemployed seasoned coaches and scouts.
So the teams rely on the Underwear Olympics to help provide a safe harbor for risks that don’t pan out. If, after all, a player’s numbers measure up favorably to others at the same position, it’ll be a little bit harder for ownership to hold the front office and/or the coaching staff accountable for wasting a draft pick and the ensuing bonus payment and salary on a guy who’s out of the league faster than Ryan Leaf.
What does any of it mean? Not all that much. Receiver Jerry Rice’s talent suggested that, in hindsight, he should have been the first player drafted in 1985; his inability to run really fast without pads or a helmet and with no football in the air left him available when the 49ers used the 16th pick in the draft.
Then there’s Vernon Gholston. The Jets linebacker has become this generation’s Mike Mamula — a player who can run and jump and lift and who looks like a monster but who gets lost when it’s time to put on the uniform and make things happen on the field.
It doesn’t make the Underwear Olympics meaningless. But they can be very misleading. And the best teams understand that the numbers and the measurements generated represent a piece of a much larger puzzle for which the answer won’t come until months if not years after the pre-draft obsession has subsided.
By then, of course, the focus will have shifted to the next crop of incoming rookies, or the next. Or the next. It’s one of the strange realities of the annual player selection process. We put hundreds of kids under the microscope through April, and then we forget about most of them once the real work starts in July and August, when teams find out the one thing they’ll never know between now and draft day: Whether players who were able to perform well at the college level will become big men on an NFL campus — or whether they’ll be among the many who never find their way against the highest level of competition.
Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.
NBA: Mark Cuban knows a good thing when he sees it. After the NBA All-Star Game’s good-time-had-by-all visit to Cowboys Stadium, the Mavs owner is wondering out loud if it would make sense to have select Mavericks games in Arlington. "If we can make the economics work, we’d look at having a regular-season or a playoff game over there," Cuban said. "You can bring in twice as many fans, so economically it would probably work out. And it would be a unique attraction for people who wanted to come play for the Mavs."
NCAA: Memphis athletic director R.C. Johnson and Florida State’s NCAA compliance director, Brian Battle, give the L.A. Times a pretty unpleasant picture of what USC will be facing when its hearing begins Thursday in a Tempe, Ariz., hotel conference room. Intimidating is the theme. USC faces charges that star athletes in football and men’s basketball received cash, gifts and favors from agents or others in violation of NCAA rules.
MLB: Yo Cubs fans, it’s your time of year (you know, when hope springs eternal). The Chicago Tribune tells us that a slimmer Carlos Zambrano is one thing to look for in Cubbie camp.
NFL: Today’s Sun-Sentinel has an interesting take on the power poll concept. The newspaper ranks the top 30 Dolphins players. No. 30 is CB Will Allen. LT Jake Long gets the top spot with this commentary: "As long as Long stays healthy there’s no limit on what he can accomplish."
Dogs: Fly’s still trying to figure out why dog shows are in sports sections. Yay for Sadie, Westminster’s new champ … I guess.
NBA: Mark Cuban knows a good thing when he sees it. After the NBA All-Star Game’s good-time-had-by-all visit to Cowboys Stadium, the Mavs owner is wondering out loud if it would make sense to have select Mavericks games in Arlington. "If we can make the economics work, we’d look at having a regular-season or a playoff game over there," Cuban said. "You can bring in twice as many fans, so economically it would probably work out. And it would be a unique attraction for people who wanted to come play for the Mavs."
NCAA: Memphis athletic director R.C. Johnson and Florida State’s NCAA compliance director, Brian Battle, give the L.A. Times a pretty unpleasant picture of what USC will be facing when its hearing begins Thursday in a Tempe, Ariz., hotel conference room. Intimidating is the theme. USC faces charges that star athletes in football and men’s basketball received cash, gifts and favors from agents or others in violation of NCAA rules.
MLB: Yo Cubs fans, it’s your time of year (you know, when hope springs eternal). The Chicago Tribune tells us that a slimmer Carlos Zambrano is one thing to look for in Cubbie camp.
NFL: Today’s Sun-Sentinel has an interesting take on the power poll concept. The newspaper ranks the top 30 Dolphins players. No. 30 is CB Will Allen. LT Jake Long gets the top spot with this commentary: "As long as Long stays healthy there’s no limit on what he can accomplish."
Dogs: Fly’s still trying to figure out why dog shows are in sports sections. Yay for Sadie, Westminster’s new champ … I guess.
Russ Lande, War Room scouts
Sporting News’ Pro Football War Room has hundreds of player evaluations in preparation for the 2010 NFL draft. Here is a capsule look at prospect Geno Atkins:
Geno Atkins was tied for 17th in the SEC in tackles for loss last season.
NFL position: DT
Height: 6-1 1⁄8
Weight: 286
40 time: 5.01
Current projection: Second-round pick
Against the run: Was productive in this area in college, but lack of size will be more of an issue in NFL. Shows the initial quickness off the snap to get into gaps and disrupt blocking schemes or make tackles in the backfield; is highly productive against "reach" blocks. Shows the initial quickness, leverage and hand usage to jolt offensive linemen; can defeat one-on-one run blocks with quick hands and feet. Lacks the size and strength to shed offensive linemen once they get their hands on him. Grade: 7.5
Pass rush: Explodes off the snap and into the backfield. Shows the hand usage and footwork to defeat one-on-one pass blocks with quick pass-rush moves. Gets underneath offensive linemen, jolting them backward when bull rushing aggressively; however, struggles to free up and make sack when close. Lacks size to be an elite bull rusher. Will deliver crushing hits to QB after the pass. Grade: 7.5
Initial quickness: Excels in this area, enabling him to be highly productive despite his lack of size. Anticipates the snap count well, and often is the first defensive lineman moving. Gets into gaps or on top of offensive linemen before they can get set. Grade: 8.5
Instincts: Shows excellent instincts and makes big plays. Sniffs out misdirection and trick plays. Must work on awareness of "side" blocks; can be driven down the line and out of the play too easily. Grade: 8.0
Pursuit/tackling: Excels in this area. Gets inside "reach" blocks and accelerates down the line. When unblocked on runs away, moves easily through traffic to chase down ballcarriers. As a tackler, stays under control and shows good technique. Grade: 8.0
Bottom line: During the ’09 season, Atkins was Georgia’s most productive defender, although he lost playing time late in the season to the emerging Kade Weston. Atkins has great athleticism, speed and explosiveness, but undersized defensive tackles are not suited for all NFL schemes. For teams that run a 4-3 scheme, he has high value as a 3-technique tackle. He probably will need a season or two as a backup to adjust to the pros and add bulk. Atkins will not be drafted as highly as we have him rated because of his size, but in time will prove to be a good value.
For more than 200 player scouting reports from Russ Lande and his team of former NFL scouts — plus updated mock draft, Super 99 rankings and more — go to warroom.sportingnews.com.
Russ Lande, War Room scouts
Sporting News’ Pro Football War Room has hundreds of player evaluations in preparation for the 2010 NFL draft. Here is a capsule look at prospect Geno Atkins:
Geno Atkins was tied for 17th in the SEC in tackles for loss last season.
NFL position: DT
Height: 6-1 1⁄8
Weight: 286
40 time: 5.01
Current projection: Second-round pick
Against the run: Was productive in this area in college, but lack of size will be more of an issue in NFL. Shows the initial quickness off the snap to get into gaps and disrupt blocking schemes or make tackles in the backfield; is highly productive against "reach" blocks. Shows the initial quickness, leverage and hand usage to jolt offensive linemen; can defeat one-on-one run blocks with quick hands and feet. Lacks the size and strength to shed offensive linemen once they get their hands on him. Grade: 7.5
Pass rush: Explodes off the snap and into the backfield. Shows the hand usage and footwork to defeat one-on-one pass blocks with quick pass-rush moves. Gets underneath offensive linemen, jolting them backward when bull rushing aggressively; however, struggles to free up and make sack when close. Lacks size to be an elite bull rusher. Will deliver crushing hits to QB after the pass. Grade: 7.5
Initial quickness: Excels in this area, enabling him to be highly productive despite his lack of size. Anticipates the snap count well, and often is the first defensive lineman moving. Gets into gaps or on top of offensive linemen before they can get set. Grade: 8.5
Instincts: Shows excellent instincts and makes big plays. Sniffs out misdirection and trick plays. Must work on awareness of "side" blocks; can be driven down the line and out of the play too easily. Grade: 8.0
Pursuit/tackling: Excels in this area. Gets inside "reach" blocks and accelerates down the line. When unblocked on runs away, moves easily through traffic to chase down ballcarriers. As a tackler, stays under control and shows good technique. Grade: 8.0
Bottom line: During the ’09 season, Atkins was Georgia’s most productive defender, although he lost playing time late in the season to the emerging Kade Weston. Atkins has great athleticism, speed and explosiveness, but undersized defensive tackles are not suited for all NFL schemes. For teams that run a 4-3 scheme, he has high value as a 3-technique tackle. He probably will need a season or two as a backup to adjust to the pros and add bulk. Atkins will not be drafted as highly as we have him rated because of his size, but in time will prove to be a good value.
For more than 200 player scouting reports from Russ Lande and his team of former NFL scouts — plus updated mock draft, Super 99 rankings and more — go to warroom.sportingnews.com.
Sporting News’ Pro Football War Room has hundreds of player evaluations in preparation for the 2010 NFL draft. Here is a capsule look at prospect Joe McKnight:
NFL position: RB
Height: 6-0
Weight: 190
40 time: 4.45
Current projection: Third round
There are questions about McKnight’s ability to shed pro defenders.
Strengths: Is an elite athlete with top-level explosiveness and playing speed. Can stop and start in a flash, which helps him make quick, sharp cuts and make tacklers miss. Has the explosive cutting ability to get to and through holes fast. Combines good balance, agility and coordination to make tacklers miss; is a legit TD threat any time he gets the ball in the open field. Has foot quickness to accelerate to full speed in a flash; outruns some players with angles on him and gets the corner when he bounces runs outside. Has natural, soft hands. Catches the ball well out of the backfield and is a dangerous runner after the catch. Has shown the ability to be a dangerous returner.
Weaknesses: Has a slight frame and struggled in college to avoid injuries, including many minor dings; must prove he is tough enough for the NFL. Is not an aggressive runner and has a tendency to dance to avoid contact while searching for a hole. Tries to bounce almost all rushing attempts outside if he does not see a hole initially; will not lower shoulder and attack line of scrimmage to gain tough yardage. Is not good in short-yardage situations. Runs upright, leading to hard hits and limiting his ability to run after contact. Does not gain nearly as many yards after contact as you would expect for someone with his elusiveness. Uses bad technique as a pass blocker; often lunges at rusher’s feet rather than stepping up and blocking aggressively. Does not seem like an instinctive runner; often fails to follow blockers like the play calls for. Had ball-security issues in college; needs to do a better job of wrapping up ball with both hands.
Bottom line: McKnight left school early for the draft and definitely could have helped his stock by staying in school for another season. He lacks the thickness to be a durable NFL starter and will have to prove he is tough enough to be a major contributor at the next level. There is little doubt that he has the elite athleticism, top-end playing speed and explosiveness to make big plays when he gets the ball in the open field, but he is not a tough or aggressive runner, and he struggles to gain yards after contact. While many want to compare McKnight to Reggie Bush, who has been a disappointment in the NFL, McKnight was not close to being the player Bush was at USC. We have a feeling McKnight will be over-drafted because of the athleticism he will show at the Combine and in his personal workout. We would not use a first or second-round pick on him because we have not seen enough to be confident he will become a productive NFL player. He is best suited to be a mid-round pick who can be tried as a third-down back. To succeed in that role, he must greatly improve his pass blocking and protect the ball much better.
For more than 200 player scouting reports from Russ Lande and his team of former NFL scouts — plus updated mock draft, Super 99 rankings and more — go to warroom.sportingnews.com.
Sporting News’ Pro Football War Room has hundreds of player evaluations in preparation for the 2010 NFL draft. Here is a capsule look at prospect Joe McKnight:
NFL position: RB
Height: 6-0
Weight: 190
40 time: 4.45
Current projection: Third round
There are questions about McKnight’s ability to shed pro defenders.
Strengths: Is an elite athlete with top-level explosiveness and playing speed. Can stop and start in a flash, which helps him make quick, sharp cuts and make tacklers miss. Has the explosive cutting ability to get to and through holes fast. Combines good balance, agility and coordination to make tacklers miss; is a legit TD threat any time he gets the ball in the open field. Has foot quickness to accelerate to full speed in a flash; outruns some players with angles on him and gets the corner when he bounces runs outside. Has natural, soft hands. Catches the ball well out of the backfield and is a dangerous runner after the catch. Has shown the ability to be a dangerous returner.
Weaknesses: Has a slight frame and struggled in college to avoid injuries, including many minor dings; must prove he is tough enough for the NFL. Is not an aggressive runner and has a tendency to dance to avoid contact while searching for a hole. Tries to bounce almost all rushing attempts outside if he does not see a hole initially; will not lower shoulder and attack line of scrimmage to gain tough yardage. Is not good in short-yardage situations. Runs upright, leading to hard hits and limiting his ability to run after contact. Does not gain nearly as many yards after contact as you would expect for someone with his elusiveness. Uses bad technique as a pass blocker; often lunges at rusher’s feet rather than stepping up and blocking aggressively. Does not seem like an instinctive runner; often fails to follow blockers like the play calls for. Had ball-security issues in college; needs to do a better job of wrapping up ball with both hands.
Bottom line: McKnight left school early for the draft and definitely could have helped his stock by staying in school for another season. He lacks the thickness to be a durable NFL starter and will have to prove he is tough enough to be a major contributor at the next level. There is little doubt that he has the elite athleticism, top-end playing speed and explosiveness to make big plays when he gets the ball in the open field, but he is not a tough or aggressive runner, and he struggles to gain yards after contact. While many want to compare McKnight to Reggie Bush, who has been a disappointment in the NFL, McKnight was not close to being the player Bush was at USC. We have a feeling McKnight will be over-drafted because of the athleticism he will show at the Combine and in his personal workout. We would not use a first or second-round pick on him because we have not seen enough to be confident he will become a productive NFL player. He is best suited to be a mid-round pick who can be tried as a third-down back. To succeed in that role, he must greatly improve his pass blocking and protect the ball much better.
For more than 200 player scouting reports from Russ Lande and his team of former NFL scouts — plus updated mock draft, Super 99 rankings and more — go to warroom.sportingnews.com.
We like to think these NFL personnel guys have it all figured out, poring over game tape and statistics and numbers, and finding gems in the annual NFL draft.
Then we’re reminded of JaMarcus Russell. Or Vernon Gholston. Or Charles Rogers. Or, yes, Ryan Leaf.
Look for former Tennessee running back Montario Hardesty to outperform expectations.
Three years ago, when everyone was gaga over Russell and his freakish physical nature, I tried to point out that one factor superseded all others: Russell was 7-4 as a starter in games against ranked teams, with 13 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions in those games.
You and I aren’t breaking down tape, but we can certainly watch players and see that Gholston has one move and doesn’t go hard every play. Or that Russell has a tendency to make bad decisions. Or that a guy with the off-field problems Rogers had at Michigan State eventually would have off-field problems as an NFL player.
The NFL Combine begins later this month, and in the spirit of the most overvalued event in all of sports, here’s my annual overrated/underrated list of draft prospects.
Quarterback
Overrated: Jonathan Crompton, Tennessee. He was lost in all of 2008 and the first month of 2009, yet now is the No. 2 quarterback on Sporting News’ War Room list. Crompton had as many touchdowns as interceptions (nine) prior to this season, and he has never completed better than 58 percent of his passes.
Underrated: Colt McCoy, Texas. The negatives: spent his career in shotgun offense. The positives: can make all the throws, is ridiculously accurate and is a winner.
Running back
Overrated: Jahvid Best. California. I get it — the NFL loves speed. But while Best was a terrific college tailback, he’s 5-9 and weighs less than 200 pounds. He’ll get pinballed weekly in the NFL.
Underrated: Montario Hardesty, Tennessee. He’s a big, bruising back who has developed nice cutback ability. NFL criticism: He’s quick, not fast. Seriously, what in the world does that mean?
Wide receiver
Overrated: Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech. Reason No. 2,145 why the draft isn’t the science they’d like you to believe: McCoy and Tim Tebow and others are knocked for playing in a "system," but Thomas is a top 10 pick despite the fact he ran two routes — curl, go — in Tech’s option offense.
Underrated: Dezmon Briscoe, Kansas. It’s always about speed at this position, when it should be all about getting separation. Briscoe will be a terrific pro because he gets open and is physical after the catch.
Tight end
Overrated: Rob Gronkowski, Arizona. Only in the NFL: Gronkowski, a good guy dealt a bad hand, has a history of back problems and missed all of 2009. Let me say that again: back problems.
Underrated: Ed Dickson, Oregon. He has wide receiver ability at the tight end position but has been criticized for his inability to sustain blocks. Is Dallas Clark the best blocker in the NFL? He sure can catch the ball.
Offensive line
Overrated: Anthony Davis, Rutgers. This is based purely on the NFL’s computer measurables: a workout warrior who fits the mold but doesn’t necessarily show up every play.
Underrated: Mike Johnson, Alabama. He’s a physical, nasty grinder. Too often, the NFL looks for weight room freaks they can "mold" into football players. More times than not, it doesn’t work.
Defensive line
Overrated: Jason Pierre-Paul, South Florida. One season in Division I football resulted in 45 tackles and 6.5 sacks. And he could be the first end taken because he runs a 4.6 40 and has "upside." See the lunacy yet?
Underrated: Linval Joseph, East Carolina. He had a back injury in the spring of 2008 because of excess weight (375 pounds), but instead of gaining more weight from inactivity, he lost 70 pounds. That shows commitment. Game tape, meanwhile, shows a dominating interior lineman.
Linebacker
Overrated: Sean Weatherspoon, Missouri. He’s a terrific athlete who ran around and made plays — but never dominated games. Weatherspoon never had to be specifically accounted for. That’s a red flag.
USC’s Taylor Mays never developed pass coverage skills.
Underrated: Reggie Carter, UCLA. He doesn’t fit the computer mold (he’s barely 6-feet tall) but played at a high level (against the run and pass) for four years in a pro-style league.
Cornerback
Overrated: Patrick Robinson, Florida State. When I watch cornerbacks, I look for two things: break on the ball and the ability to limit yards after the catch. When the NFL watches, it looks for one thing: speed.
Underrated: Kyle Wilson, Boise State. The NFL likes to talk about the ability to chase and closing speed and fluid hips. No one in this draft breaks on the ball better than Wilson.
Safety
Overrated: Taylor Mays, USC. The draft’s elite physical specimen got too caught up in big hits the past two seasons and never developed in pass coverage.
Underrated: Earl Thomas, Texas. Weight (195 pounds) is a big concern, but he hits like a linebacker and does something many better athletes don’t: wraps up on tackles.
Matt Hayes covers college football for Sporting News and is an analyst for the NFL Network. Tune in to Total Access weeknights. E-mail him at mhayes@sportingnews.com.
We like to think these NFL personnel guys have it all figured out, poring over game tape and statistics and numbers, and finding gems in the annual NFL draft.
Then we’re reminded of JaMarcus Russell. Or Vernon Gholston. Or Charles Rogers. Or, yes, Ryan Leaf.
Look for former Tennessee running back Montario Hardesty to outperform expectations.
Three years ago, when everyone was gaga over Russell and his freakish physical nature, I tried to point out that one factor superseded all others: Russell was 7-4 as a starter in games against ranked teams, with 13 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions in those games.
You and I aren’t breaking down tape, but we can certainly watch players and see that Gholston has one move and doesn’t go hard every play. Or that Russell has a tendency to make bad decisions. Or that a guy with the off-field problems Rogers had at Michigan State eventually would have off-field problems as an NFL player.
The NFL Combine begins later this month, and in the spirit of the most overvalued event in all of sports, here’s my annual overrated/underrated list of draft prospects.
Quarterback
Overrated: Jonathan Crompton, Tennessee. He was lost in all of 2008 and the first month of 2009, yet now is the No. 2 quarterback on Sporting News’ War Room list. Crompton had as many touchdowns as interceptions (nine) prior to this season, and he has never completed better than 58 percent of his passes.
Underrated: Colt McCoy, Texas. The negatives: spent his career in shotgun offense. The positives: can make all the throws, is ridiculously accurate and is a winner.
Running back
Overrated: Jahvid Best. California. I get it — the NFL loves speed. But while Best was a terrific college tailback, he’s 5-9 and weighs less than 200 pounds. He’ll get pinballed weekly in the NFL.
Underrated: Montario Hardesty, Tennessee. He’s a big, bruising back who has developed nice cutback ability. NFL criticism: He’s quick, not fast. Seriously, what in the world does that mean?
Wide receiver
Overrated: Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech. Reason No. 2,145 why the draft isn’t the science they’d like you to believe: McCoy and Tim Tebow and others are knocked for playing in a "system," but Thomas is a top 10 pick despite the fact he ran two routes — curl, go — in Tech’s option offense.
Underrated: Dezmon Briscoe, Kansas. It’s always about speed at this position, when it should be all about getting separation. Briscoe will be a terrific pro because he gets open and is physical after the catch.
Tight end
Overrated: Rob Gronkowski, Arizona. Only in the NFL: Gronkowski, a good guy dealt a bad hand, has a history of back problems and missed all of 2009. Let me say that again: back problems.
Underrated: Ed Dickson, Oregon. He has wide receiver ability at the tight end position but has been criticized for his inability to sustain blocks. Is Dallas Clark the best blocker in the NFL? He sure can catch the ball.
Offensive line
Overrated: Anthony Davis, Rutgers. This is based purely on the NFL’s computer measurables: a workout warrior who fits the mold but doesn’t necessarily show up every play.
Underrated: Mike Johnson, Alabama. He’s a physical, nasty grinder. Too often, the NFL looks for weight room freaks they can "mold" into football players. More times than not, it doesn’t work.
Defensive line
Overrated: Jason Pierre-Paul, South Florida. One season in Division I football resulted in 45 tackles and 6.5 sacks. And he could be the first end taken because he runs a 4.6 40 and has "upside." See the lunacy yet?
Underrated: Linval Joseph, East Carolina. He had a back injury in the spring of 2008 because of excess weight (375 pounds), but instead of gaining more weight from inactivity, he lost 70 pounds. That shows commitment. Game tape, meanwhile, shows a dominating interior lineman.
Linebacker
Overrated: Sean Weatherspoon, Missouri. He’s a terrific athlete who ran around and made plays — but never dominated games. Weatherspoon never had to be specifically accounted for. That’s a red flag.
USC’s Taylor Mays never developed pass coverage skills.
Underrated: Reggie Carter, UCLA. He doesn’t fit the computer mold (he’s barely 6-feet tall) but played at a high level (against the run and pass) for four years in a pro-style league.
Cornerback
Overrated: Patrick Robinson, Florida State. When I watch cornerbacks, I look for two things: break on the ball and the ability to limit yards after the catch. When the NFL watches, it looks for one thing: speed.
Underrated: Kyle Wilson, Boise State. The NFL likes to talk about the ability to chase and closing speed and fluid hips. No one in this draft breaks on the ball better than Wilson.
Safety
Overrated: Taylor Mays, USC. The draft’s elite physical specimen got too caught up in big hits the past two seasons and never developed in pass coverage.
Underrated: Earl Thomas, Texas. Weight (195 pounds) is a big concern, but he hits like a linebacker and does something many better athletes don’t: wraps up on tackles.
Matt Hayes covers college football for Sporting News and is an analyst for the NFL Network. Tune in to Total Access weeknights. E-mail him at mhayes@sportingnews.com.
Fantasy Source’s top 10 kickers for 2010:
1. Nate Kaeding, Chargers
2. David Akers, Eagles
3. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots
4. Ryan Longwell, Vikings
5. Mason Crosby, Packers
6. Rob Bironas, Titans
7. Lawrence Tynes, Giants
8. Garrett Hartley, Saints
9. Matt Prater, Broncos
10. Jeff Reed, Steelers
For the full ranking of kickers and much more, visit Fantasy Source.
Fantasy Source’s top 10 kickers for 2010:
1. Nate Kaeding, Chargers
2. David Akers, Eagles
3. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots
4. Ryan Longwell, Vikings
5. Mason Crosby, Packers
6. Rob Bironas, Titans
7. Lawrence Tynes, Giants
8. Garrett Hartley, Saints
9. Matt Prater, Broncos
10. Jeff Reed, Steelers
For the full ranking of kickers and much more, visit Fantasy Source.
Fantasy Source’s top 10 defenses for 2010:
1. Ravens
2. Jets
3. Steelers
4. Packers
5. 49ers
6. Cowboys
7. Vikings
8. Eagles
9. Patriots
10. Bengals
For the full ranking of defenses and much more, visit Fantasy Source.
Fantasy Source’s top 10 defenses for 2010:
1. Ravens
2. Jets
3. Steelers
4. Packers
5. 49ers
6. Cowboys
7. Vikings
8. Eagles
9. Patriots
10. Bengals
For the full ranking of defenses and much more, visit Fantasy Source.
Since it’s never too early to start looking ahead to the next fantasy football season, we asked Bill Bender from Fantasy Source to pay us a visit and offer his post-Super Bowl rankings for 2010. Here’s a look at defenses and kickers:
2010 fantasy Defenses: Check out the top 10 for free
Jets CB Darrelle Revis had six interceptions in 2009.
Franchise: N.Y. Jets (No. 2). This unit has more than just all-world cornerback Darrelle Revis. David Harris is an elite linebacker, and Calvin Pace and Shaun Ellis are outstanding role players. Kris Jenkins’ return, the draft and another year in Rex Ryan’s system will make the league’s No. 1 unit even better. By "better," I mean "elite."
Bounce-back: Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 3). Steelers fans used the "no Troy Polamalu" excuse in tonnage last year, and it had merit. The Steelers have ranked in the top three in run defense four years in a row, but they struggled against the pass without the safety. That’s the sign of a bounce-back attack, provided Polamalu is healthy.
Sleeper: Houston Texans (No. 16). The Texans allowed more than 20 points only twice after Week 8, and those were excusable efforts against the Colts and Patriots. This unit will improve around Brian Cushing, DeMeco Ryans and Mario Williams.
Bust: Miami Dolphins (No. 17). This aging group couldn’t stop the pass, gave up too many points and struggled against the run toward the end of last season. Can Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano fix all of that against a brutal schedule that features six road games against playoff teams? It’s doubtful.
2010 fantasy Ks: Check out the top 10 for free
Franchise: Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots (No. 3). He’s the only kicker with more than 400 points since ’07 (410), and he has connected on 87.3 percent of his field goals in that span.
Bounce-back: Nate Kaeding, Chargers (No. 1). So what if he can’t hit in the postseason? Kaeding averaged 9.1 ppg and led the league in scoring in 2009. Make him the top kicker in ’10.
Sleeper: Dan Carpenter, Dolphins: This accurate kicker will creep into the top-10 next season. Do you know where Carpenter played his college ball? Five … four … it was Montana. Sorry, I couldn’t wait.
Bust: Shayne Graham, Bengals (No. 23). So what if he can’t hit in the postseason? Well, in this case, it could cost him a job.
Rookie: Brett Swenson, Michigan State. Swenson isn’t the next Morten Andersen, but he will compete for a starting job somewhere.
Also see: 2010 fantasy RBs | Fantasy QBs | Fantasy WRs | Fantasy TEs
Bill Bender writes for Fantasy Source Football. For more coverage, visit Fantasy Source Football today.
Since it’s never too early to start looking ahead to the next fantasy football season, we asked Bill Bender from Fantasy Source to pay us a visit and offer his post-Super Bowl rankings for 2010. Here’s a look at defenses and kickers:
2010 fantasy Defenses: Check out the top 10 for free
Jets CB Darrelle Revis had six interceptions in 2009.
Franchise: N.Y. Jets (No. 2). This unit has more than just all-world cornerback Darrelle Revis. David Harris is an elite linebacker, and Calvin Pace and Shaun Ellis are outstanding role players. Kris Jenkins’ return, the draft and another year in Rex Ryan’s system will make the league’s No. 1 unit even better. By "better," I mean "elite."
Bounce-back: Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 3). Steelers fans used the "no Troy Polamalu" excuse in tonnage last year, and it had merit. The Steelers have ranked in the top three in run defense four years in a row, but they struggled against the pass without the safety. That’s the sign of a bounce-back attack, provided Polamalu is healthy.
Sleeper: Houston Texans (No. 16). The Texans allowed more than 20 points only twice after Week 8, and those were excusable efforts against the Colts and Patriots. This unit will improve around Brian Cushing, DeMeco Ryans and Mario Williams.
Bust: Miami Dolphins (No. 17). This aging group couldn’t stop the pass, gave up too many points and struggled against the run toward the end of last season. Can Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano fix all of that against a brutal schedule that features six road games against playoff teams? It’s doubtful.
2010 fantasy Ks: Check out the top 10 for free
Franchise: Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots (No. 3). He’s the only kicker with more than 400 points since ’07 (410), and he has connected on 87.3 percent of his field goals in that span.
Bounce-back: Nate Kaeding, Chargers (No. 1). So what if he can’t hit in the postseason? Kaeding averaged 9.1 ppg and led the league in scoring in 2009. Make him the top kicker in ’10.
Sleeper: Dan Carpenter, Dolphins: This accurate kicker will creep into the top-10 next season. Do you know where Carpenter played his college ball? Five … four … it was Montana. Sorry, I couldn’t wait.
Bust: Shayne Graham, Bengals (No. 23). So what if he can’t hit in the postseason? Well, in this case, it could cost him a job.
Rookie: Brett Swenson, Michigan State. Swenson isn’t the next Morten Andersen, but he will compete for a starting job somewhere.
Also see: 2010 fantasy RBs | Fantasy QBs | Fantasy WRs | Fantasy TEs
Bill Bender writes for Fantasy Source Football. For more coverage, visit Fantasy Source Football today.
Sporting News’ Pro Football War Room has hundreds of player evaluations in preparation for the 2010 NFL draft. Here is a capsule look at prospect Shawnbrey McNeal:
Height: 5-10
Weight: 190
40 time: 4.55
Current projection: Fourth-round pick
Strengths: Shows excellent instincts, cutback vision and elusiveness, especially in the open field. Has outstanding speed, quickness, lateral agility, explosiveness, acceleration and gear change. Has soft hands and runs excellent routes out of the backfield and as a slot receiver. Adjusts well to the ball in the air and runs well after the catch. Has the skills to be a quality return man.
Weaknesses: Has an undersized frame with limited potential to develop into an every-down NFL running back. Played in a run-and-shoot college offense with a one-back formation. Has merely above-average strength on contact. Is a marginal pass blocker due to his lack of size, strength and effort. Had only one productive season in college. Has limited experience as a return man.
Bottom line: McNeal was SMU’s starting running back for one year after transferring from Miami, where he had two undistinguished seasons. He is a strong third-down back prospect who ideally will serve in a "Reggie Bush" role. He deserves fourth-round consideration by a team like the Eagles, whose offense utilizes running backs in the passing game more than most teams.
For more than 200 player scouting reports from Russ Lande and his team of former NFL scouts — plus updated mock draft, Super 99 rankings and more — go to warroom.sportingnews.com.
Sporting News’ Pro Football War Room has hundreds of player evaluations in preparation for the 2010 NFL draft. Here is a capsule look at prospect Shawnbrey McNeal:
Height: 5-10
Weight: 190
40 time: 4.55
Current projection: Fourth-round pick
Strengths: Shows excellent instincts, cutback vision and elusiveness, especially in the open field. Has outstanding speed, quickness, lateral agility, explosiveness, acceleration and gear change. Has soft hands and runs excellent routes out of the backfield and as a slot receiver. Adjusts well to the ball in the air and runs well after the catch. Has the skills to be a quality return man.
Weaknesses: Has an undersized frame with limited potential to develop into an every-down NFL running back. Played in a run-and-shoot college offense with a one-back formation. Has merely above-average strength on contact. Is a marginal pass blocker due to his lack of size, strength and effort. Had only one productive season in college. Has limited experience as a return man.
Bottom line: McNeal was SMU’s starting running back for one year after transferring from Miami, where he had two undistinguished seasons. He is a strong third-down back prospect who ideally will serve in a "Reggie Bush" role. He deserves fourth-round consideration by a team like the Eagles, whose offense utilizes running backs in the passing game more than most teams.
For more than 200 player scouting reports from Russ Lande and his team of former NFL scouts — plus updated mock draft, Super 99 rankings and more — go to warroom.sportingnews.com.
Since it’s never too early to start looking ahead to the next fantasy football season, we asked Bill Bender from Fantasy Source to pay us a visit and offer his post-Super Bowl rankings for 2010. Here’s a look at tight ends:
2010 fantasy TEs: Check out the top 10 for free
Franchise: Dallas Clark Colts (No. 2). Clark became the second tight end to catch 100 passes in a single season, and he leads TEs with 27 TDs since 2007. Bottom line: Peyton Manning is his quarterback.
Bounce-back: Jason Witten, Cowboys (No. 4). Owners will overlook Witten because he scored just two TDs in 2009. But he still had 94 receptions and 1,030 yards. With a few more scores, he’ll be back on par with Clark and Antonio Gates.
Sleeper: John Carlson, Seahawks (No. 12). Because Jermichael Finley is too obvious. Carlson slumped most of ’09, but he closed with four TDs in the final four weeks. He’s a third-year breakout candidate.
Bust: Zach Miller, Raiders (No. 14). Miller is perceived as a draft-day bargain, but he has caught only seven TDs in three seasons. He’s no more than a bye-week backup. Bottom line: JaMarcus Russell is his quarterback (for now).
Rookie: Aaron Hernandez, Florida. Tim Tebow gets all the attention, but college teammate Hernandez (6-2, 250) had 68 catches for 850 yards and five scores as a junior. Hernandez will make an impact, especially in the red zone.
Also see: 2010 fantasy RBs | Fantasy QBs | Fantasy WRs
Bill Bender writes for Fantasy Source Football. For more coverage, visit Fantasy Source Football today.
Since it’s never too early to start looking ahead to the next fantasy football season, we asked Bill Bender from Fantasy Source to pay us a visit and offer his post-Super Bowl rankings for 2010. Here’s a look at tight ends:
2010 fantasy TEs: Check out the top 10 for free
Franchise: Dallas Clark Colts (No. 2). Clark became the second tight end to catch 100 passes in a single season, and he leads TEs with 27 TDs since 2007. Bottom line: Peyton Manning is his quarterback.
Bounce-back: Jason Witten, Cowboys (No. 4). Owners will overlook Witten because he scored just two TDs in 2009. But he still had 94 receptions and 1,030 yards. With a few more scores, he’ll be back on par with Clark and Antonio Gates.
Sleeper: John Carlson, Seahawks (No. 12). Because Jermichael Finley is too obvious. Carlson slumped most of ’09, but he closed with four TDs in the final four weeks. He’s a third-year breakout candidate.
Bust: Zach Miller, Raiders (No. 14). Miller is perceived as a draft-day bargain, but he has caught only seven TDs in three seasons. He’s no more than a bye-week backup. Bottom line: JaMarcus Russell is his quarterback (for now).
Rookie: Aaron Hernandez, Florida. Tim Tebow gets all the attention, but college teammate Hernandez (6-2, 250) had 68 catches for 850 yards and five scores as a junior. Hernandez will make an impact, especially in the red zone.
Also see: 2010 fantasy RBs | Fantasy QBs | Fantasy WRs
Bill Bender writes for Fantasy Source Football. For more coverage, visit Fantasy Source Football today.
