Author: smcneal.tsn

Hyped for a heck of a homestretch? You should be.

Baseball’s pennant races are hot. With less than a third of the season remaining, no more than 2 1/2 games separate the top two teams in every division except the AL West.

Three factors certain to help separate the heroes from the hapless:

Ryan Howard is one of several big names who have been shelved with injuries.

Health
Nothing can sidetrack a team like injuries. Just ask the Red Sox. Nothing is more certain to happen than injuries, either.

Check some of the names on the disabled list: Justin Morneau (concussion), Chase Utley (thumb), Ryan Howard (ankle), Martin Prado (pinky), Rafael Furcal (back), Kevin Youkilis (thumb) and Dustin Pedroia (foot). Prado and Pedroia are expected back as soon as next week. The others, who knows?

Compared to the Phillies, the NL East-leading Braves had avoided costly injuries until Thursday when they learned Chipper Jones has a torn ACL in his left knee and faces season-ending surgery. The injury comes when the 38-year-old third baseman was hitting better than he has all season. "Worst-case scenario," admitted Jones’ long-time agent, BB Abbott.

Until recently, the Rays had gotten by with five starters all season, riding them to the majors’ second-best record. But they recently lost youngsters Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis to shoulder issues, just as the Red Sox are creeping closer.

Home
Nothing can boost a team like playing at home. Check the standings. Every first- and second-place team is at least seven games over .500 at home. Only the Yankees, Rays and Padres have played that well on the road.

The Padres are perhaps in the best position to take advantage of the remaining schedule. They begin a 10-game trip with a three-game showdown this weekend against the Giants, a team they have beaten in seven of eight meetings. After this journey, the Padres will leave San Diego only three more times, with two of those trips just three games long. The Giants still must make a trip to the East Coast, a 10-game trip on the West Coast, plus another that will send them to Chicago and Colorado.

The Padres hope to celebrate many more home wins down the stretch drive.

The Cardinals, who have the fewest road wins of any contender, have 25 home games left and 24 on the road. The Reds, meanwhile, play 25 of their final 47 on the road. The Twins get 28 of their final 48 games at Target Field—three more home games than the White Sox have left. The Yankees and Rays both have 24 home games remaining, while the Braves have 27 and the Phillies have 24.

Heat
Nothing is more challenging than playing in scorching heat. Ask the Rangers. August and September have taken them down more than once. They were three games out and 15 games over .500 going into August last year but went 29-32 and finished 10 behind the first-place Angels. Since their last trip to the postseason in 1999, the Rangers have had a winning record from August on only once. Even workhorse lefty Cliff Lee was affected by the 95-degree temperatures Wednesday when he failed to last seven innings for only the second time all season.

With four days left in steamy Kansas City this week and another trip left to Texas, Yankees manager Joe Girardi says guiding his veteran club through the dog days might be his biggest challenge.

"We are a club with some age," Girardi says. "We have a closer who’s 40, a catcher who’s 39, a left side of the infield that’s 36. Physically, how do I get these guys through the last 50 or so games? You can’t get too caught up in one or two games even though that’s what it could come down to in our division."

Stan McNeal is a writer for Sporting News. E-mail him at smcneal@sportingnews.com.

The Giants have Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Barry Zito. The A’s have a bunch of young starters who rarely are mentioned on SportsCenter unless they pitch a perfect game.

The Giants’ starters have won three Cy Young Awards and made seven All-Star teams. The A’s have zero and one. The Giants’ rotation will pull in $33.25 million as a group this season. A’s starters will be paid $2.385 million. Total, including bonuses.

Trevor Cahill is a Cy Young candidate this season.

But the A’s rotation has been just as successful as the Giants’ in 2010. The numbers for the starters that each team will use down the stretch are practically a wash. The A’s are a combined 37-26 with a 3.32 ERA; the Giants 40-32 with a 3.33 ERA.

Maybe it is time to learn why Trevor Cahill has been the most difficult pitcher to hit in the American League this season. And how Gio Gonzalez has earned more wins than any Giant except Lincecum. And just who are Brett Anderson and Vin Mazzaro. And what has happened to Dallas Braden since his perfect game.

First, a group study: Oakland’s starters are younger than you might think: 22, 22, 23, 24 and 26. Three were drafted by the A’s and all pretty much came through the minors together. They hail from all across America: New Jersey, Oklahoma, Miami, San Diego and Stockton, Calif. Stuff-wise, they probably aren’t on the Giants’ level. San Francisco’s rotation has a trio with 95-plus mph fastballs. The A’s have one, maybe.

To help demonstrate that the A’s starters are making the most out of what they do throw, we consulted two sources who have seen plenty of them: Oakland closer Andrew Bailey and a veteran major league scout. Their reports, ranked in order of where each starter best fits into the rotation:

Brett Anderson, 22. The lefthander from Stillwater, Okla., was a second-round draft pick by the Diamondbacks in 2006 and came to the A’s in the 2007 Dan Haren trade. He made 30 starts as a rookie in 2009 and has had two stints on the disabled list this season.
This season: 2.88 ERA, 34 strikeouts to seven walks, zero homers allowed in 50 innings.
Scout says: "He has a power fastball, power slider. Clearly has the best stuff and is the one guy on this staff who could be a No. 1, but that depends on his health."
Bailey says: "The quiet killer. Big power arm, and he’s not afraid to pitch inside."

Trevor Cahill, 22. A second-round pick out in 2006, Cahill started the season on the disabled list but has emerged as a Cy Young candidate.
This season: 12-4, 2.56 ERA, an AL-best .192 batting average against.
Scout says: "He doesn’t have eye-popping stuff but has been one of the best starters in baseball because of his ability to keep the ball down. I’d compare him to Carl Pavano or a Derek Lowe, but with a little better stuff."
Bailey says: "Has a Brandon Webb-type sinker. The big difference for him this season has been throwing his curve for a strike. When we were first in the minors, he never talked to anybody, almost like he was scared because he’d never been out of his corner of the world in San Diego. But now he’s really come into his own, as a pitcher and a person."

Gio Gonzalez, 24. One of the rotation’s three lefthanders, he is the A’s only starter to not miss a turn this season. Gonzalez, out of Miami, was a first-round pick by the White Sox in 2004, was traded to the Phillies in 2005 and back to Chicago a year later before coming to Oakland in the 2008 Nick Swisher deal.
This season: 3.51 ERA, 10-7 record, a .183 batting average allowed against lefthanders. He also ranks among AL leaders in walks (62 in 141 innings).

Vin Mazzaro has allowed 12 homers in 88 2/3 innings.

Scout says: "Very good fastball and curve, good changeup. He has trouble pitching down in the zone. He struggles with command, which leads to high pitch counts."
Bailey says: "Power arm with a big, loopy curve. From Miami, he’s the always outgoing type."

Vin Mazzaro, 23. He was a third-round pick in 2005 out of New Jersey. Mazzaro wasn’t called up for good this season until late May but is coming on. Seven of his past eight starts have been strong.
This season: 6-4 record, 3.86 ERA, but 12 homers allowed in 88 2/3 innings.
Scout says: "A good sinking fastball but he also can have trouble with his command."
Bailey says: "A 94-mph fastball and strong slider. He’s like me. We’re both from New Jersey and can talk all day."

Dallas Braden, 26. He is the only member of the rotation not drafted in the first three rounds. Braden was a 24th-round pick in 2004 out of Stockton, the town he proudly calls home. Section 209 — the area code in his hometown — was packed for a promotion when Braden pitched his perfect game on Mother’s Day.
This season: 6-8 record, 3.75 ERA.
Scout says: "He has the least amount of stuff but probably the best idea of how to pitch. He commands well and really knows how to change speeds."
Bailey says: "He throws probably the most changeups per start in the league. He can throw one 74 (mph), he can throw one 64. He’s not eligible for arbitration yet, but he’s still our veteran leader."

Stan McNeal is a writer for Sporting News. E-mail him at smcneal@sportingnews.com.

If the regular season ended today, only one team that reached the playoffs last year—the Yankees—would be returning.

Of course, the season doesn’t end for another 55 days, leaving ample time to sort contenders from pretenders. Some serious sorting can be done this week when the upstarts face other contenders.

Cardinals at Reds

The Reds haven’t been to the playoffs since 1995 but they’re right where they want to be. In first place, a season-best 16 games over .500 and at home for this three-game showdown.

The Cardinals have lost four of their last five series away from Busch Stadium but don’t tell them they’re not good visitors. "We’re capable of playing well on the road," manager Tony La Russa said, pointing to some early-season success.

La Russa reworked his rotation for Cincinnati to use his three best starters, beginning with Chris Carpenter tonight against rookie Mike Leake.

Yankees at Rangers

With a 7 1/2-game division lead, you have to like the Rangers’ odds of making the playoffs for the first time since 1999.

But do they have what it takes for October? Two games against the Yankees, followed by three against Boston, should provide some insight. Texas was swept early in New York but much has changed, including:

Cliff Lee is on the Rangers now. The Yankees know all about him from the 2009 World Series.

C.J. Wilson has become a dependable starter. He leads Texas with 10 wins with a 3.30 ERA but is coming off his worst outing. He starts Tuesday, with Lee on Wednesday.

The Yankees still have a series to finish against Boston before thinking about the Texas heat.

Padres at Giants

After winning 10-1 at Arizona on Sunday, the Padres still have only one losing streak as long as three games. "With that kind of pitching, you’re able to avoid losing streaks," says an NL scout, talking up the Padres’ chances of winning the NL West.

But is a lack of offense catching up to San Diego? The club has been held to one or fewer runs three times in eight games since the trade deadline.

Two silver linings for San Diego:

— Before the Padres visit San Francisco this weekend, they get three at home against  Pittsburgh.

— The Giants haven’t been hitting, either. They topped three runs only once last week.

Stan McNeal analyzes three hot topics in Major League Baseball.

The Astros’ hitters have responded well to Jeff Bagwell’s mentoring.

STRIKE 1: Bagwell’s tryout is going well

Jeff Bagwell isn’t ready to consider his new job as Astros hitting coach as more than a "two and a half month tryout." Maybe he should.

Since Bagwell moved to the dugout from his role as special assistant to the GM, the Astros lead the N.L. in scoring per game. Yes, he’s been in the position barely three weeks, but before the break, the Astros ranked 15th in runs. Bagwell must be doing something right. Such as:

• Fixing swings. Rookie Jason Castro isn’t going to threaten for the N.L. batting title, but after a sit-down with Bagwell earlier this season, Astros assistant GM Ricky Bennett says the 23-year-old catcher improved his average by "about 70 points in a matter of 2 1/2 weeks" in the minors and reached the majors a month later.

• Enhancing analysis. When an Astros hitter is at the plate, Bagwell is dissecting the at-bat in the dugout with other hitters. "This enables them to look for certain things when they go to the plate," manager Brad Mills says.

• Swinging smart. While Bagwell’s predecessor, Sean Berry, favored an aggressive approach, Bagwell wants his hitters to work counts. "That’s my biggest thing: I don’t want them to give at-bats away," he says.

The 42-year-old former slugger has brought an old-school approach to the job. He is not big on video and he doesn’t believe that 100 swings in the batting cage are more beneficial than "10 or 15 good ones." Today’s hitters, he says, "find ways to put themselves in slumps."

The Astros did not fire Berry until they had asked Bagwell if he would make the commitment to coach. Bagwell had spent plenty of time watching Astros minor league hitters, and had impressed Bennett with an ability to notice flaws and communicate how to correct them. Being a potential Hall of Famer doesn’t hurt his efforts to gain his players’ attention.

"He did it at this level for 15 years, so they’re going to listen," Bennett says. "They better."

STRIKE 2: Taking chances in Toronto

When the Blue Jays traded for Anthony Gose on the same day the Phillies moved him to Houston, many wondered what the Blue Jays were thinking. They gave up Brett Wallace for a kid who was caught stealing 27 times in barely half a season.

Wallace, 23, already has taken over as the Astros’ first baseman and is widely regarded as someone who’ll hit .280 with 20-plus homers for many seasons.

Gose, 19, is a leadoff hitter who posted a .325 OBP for Clearwater before he was traded. Yes, he was a second-round pick and possesses plenty of tools: speed, arm, defense and bat speed. But he has yet to show if he’ll learn how to lay off a slider in the dirt. He could be an All-Star; he might never reach Class AAA. At this point, the odds are about the same.

But that’s the point. Under rookie GM Alex Anthopoulos, the Blue Jays are about taking risks. They feel the best way to hang with the Yankees and Red Sox without their checkbooks is to gamble on high-upside players, especially ones at premium positions. So they’ve taken a chance on Gose just like they have on shortstop Yunel Escobar. Give up a solid-to-good player for a young player who could be special.

To improve their chances of being right, Anthopoulos has beefed up his scouting department at a time when some clubs have cut back. Now he’s listening to his scouts and, most impressive, is showing that he’s not just going to talk about taking risks.

"I give Alex a lot of credit," says one Jays scout. "I don’t think any GM would have had the guts to make a deal like that (for Gose). But he’s sticking to his guns. He wants premium guys, and he knows we need to take risks."

Vicente Padilla has had eight consecutive great starts.

STRIKE 3: Quick hits

• When talking about the hottest pitcher going, don’t forget Dodgers right-hander Vicente Padilla. His two-hit shutout of the Padres Wednesday night gave him eight consecutive starts of allowing two or fewer runs. He baffled the Padres by mixing in a 53-mph curve (Vin Scully calls it the soap bubble) with a 95 mph fastball, taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning.

• No injury to a contender could prove more costly than the Cardinals’ loss of rookie third baseman David Freese for the rest of the season. Trading right fielder Ryan Ludwick will look even more ill-advised if the Cardinals don’t come up with a better replacement than sore-kneed Felipe Lopez or Aaron Miles. Freese’s defense has been most missed so far.

• Hitting home run No. 600 was a big deal for Alex Rodriguez, but it might not have been the best news of his day. This could have been: Determining a winning bid in the Rangers’ sale means there should be no legal hangup of the $24.9 million the club owes him in deferred salary. Interesting to hear A-Rod say that 600 is a nice number but the milestones that will mean more are ones when he starts catching the six sluggers ahead of him. Think that has anything to do with the $6 million he’ll be paid by the Yankees for each one he passes?

• Another reason that Torii Hunter is what’s right about baseball: His move to right field was accompanied by little comment except, "If it’s best for the team, OK."

Stan McNeal is a writer for Sporting News. E-mail him at smcneal@sportingnews.com.

As August heats up, here is a look at two hot rookies and two cold veterans and how their hitting figures to impact their teams’ chances of playing when temperatures drop in October.

Giants rookie Buster Posey is on a tear.

Buster Posey, C, Giants
Few things in baseball are as maligned as the Giants’ offense. The schedule. Bud Selig’s refusal to implement more replay. Alex Rodriguez’s sincerity.

But perhaps it is time to stop bashing Giants’ hitters. Since July 1, the day Bengie Molina was traded and San Francisco made Posey its full-time catcher, the Giants lead the majors in runs scored. That’s right. Not the Yankees. Not the Phillies. The Giants, with an average of 5.4 runs in their past 30 games.

Posey isn’t the only reason, of course. Aubrey Huff and Andres Torres have provided plenty of offense. But they don’t lead the majors in batting average and on-base percentage since the end of June. Posey does, at .414 and .468, respectively. They didn’t reel off a 21-game hitting streak. Posey did.

The 23-year-old rookie has done his damage from the middle of the order, too. Since the club (finally) handed him the catcher’s job, the Giants lead the NL with a 22-8 record. Their pitching has been as good as advertised during that stretch, with a 3.18 ERA that is third-best in the N.L. behind the Reds and Braves.

The Posey-led offense has made the difference. Scouts believe Posey’s swing is so polished that he should avoid prolonged slumps. He hasn’t had an 0-for-4 performance since June 27. He is striking out only once every eight at-bats. He is hitting to all fields.

If Posey keeps this up, he might not only help the Giants to their first postseason appearance in the post-Barry Bonds era but he could wrestle rookie of the year honors from the Braves’ Jason Heyward.

Jon Jay, OF, Cardinals
When Ryan Ludwick went on the disabled list in early July, the Cardinals called up Jay. When Ludwick came off the disabled list, the Cardinals didn’t send down Jay.

Instead, they soon traded Ludwick. The Cardinals say a need for starting pitcher led to the move, but they don’t deny Jay’s play in Ludwick’s absence made the move more doable.

All Jay did was lead the NL in hitting last month with a .431 average while posting a .500 on-base percentage. The 25-year-old rookie played so well that Cardinals manager Tony La Russa couldn’t take him out of the lineup. "He’s a player," La Russa says. "He does something good every game."

Jay will be counted on to keep up the strong play. With Ludwick in San Diego and Colby Rasmus having an up-and-down second season, the Cardinals need Jay’s offense in front of Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday. The club went 8-1 when Jay started and scored at least one run in July. When he didn’t score, the Cardinals were 3-6.

When the inevitable rookie slowdown comes — Jay is 1-for-12 since Ludwick was traded — the Cardinals have Randy Winn and Allen Craig to play in the outfield. But Jay figures to get the majority of the at-bats in right field and perhaps some of Rasmus’ in center. "He’s earning them," La Russa says of the Cardinals’ second-round pick in 2006.

If Jay is concerned about any added pressure, he hides it well. "I don’t take anything for granted," Jay says. "I’ll still come in every day to see if my name is in the lineup."

Troy Glaus has been struggling since mid-June.

Troy Glaus, 1B, Braves
In his first month with his new team and at a new position, Glaus hit .194 with two homers and nine RBIs. The Braves didn’t fare much better, going 9-14 and finishing April in last place.

It was no coincidence that when Glaus got hot in May, so did the Braves. "After he started hitting, that was our big turnaround," righthander Tim Hudson says. "Other guys just seemed to fall in line."

The Braves moved into first place in late May and have remained there, though their seven-game lead over the Phillies on July 22 has dwindled to two. You can point to Glaus as the reason for this reversal, too. He is hitting .163 since June 15 and was worse in July (.182-0-5) than he was in April.

Glaus had legitimate reasons for his awful April: He was on a new team at a new position (first base) and he was coming off a season mostly lost because of shoulder surgery.

As for July, who knows? Hitting coach Terry Pendleton says the slugger is tired. Bobby Cox gave Glaus off Tuesday night for what he told reporters was a "breather." Glaus insists his shoulder is sound but doesn’t offer a better explanation for his slump.

The Braves could use reserve outfielder Eric Hinske more at first base, but he hit only .212 in July and likely would be more exposed as an everyday player. They have used second baseman Martin Prado there a bit but he is on the disabled list. Another possibility would be to call up first base prospect Freddie Freeman before the rosters expand Sept. 1, but counting on a rookie in a playoff race is hardly ideal.

Vladimir Guerrero, DH, Rangers
One of the feel-good stories of the first half is not feeling so fine these days. Perhaps the Texas heat is slowing down Guerrero. After all, he spent the previous 14 seasons in Southern California and Montreal. Perhaps he is feeling his age (35) or perhaps the knee, shoulder, back and chest injuries that plagued him the past two seasons are acting up.

Whatever the reason, Guerrero has slowed after his All-Star first half. He entered today’s action with a season-low .304 average, a drop of 35 points since June 30. Only one of his 21 homers has come since the All-Star break. He recently went nine games without an RBI.

And he has just begun the hottest two months of the year in Texas.

The good news for the Rangers: A lot more would have to go wrong than a Guerrero slump for them to lose their lead in the AL West. Josh Hamilton has ensured that their offense has remained potent. The arrival of Cliff Lee has improved the pitching. They have continued to build on their division lead despite Guerrero’s slowdown.

Guerrero wouldn’t be the first to feel the drain of August in Arlington. The Rangers have gone 52-62 from August on since 2008. The difference this season: They have an eight-game cushion.

Stan McNeal is a writer for Sporting News. E-mail him at smcneal@sportingnews.com.

Seven points about the Roy Oswalt trade to the Phillies:

1. This is bad news for the Cardinals, Reds and any other club thinking wild card. The Phillies already had closed to 3 1/2 games of the division-leading Braves and within 2 1/2 games of the wild-card leading Giants on the strength of a seven-game winning streak that was fueled by an offensive resurgence.

With Oswalt, Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels, the Phillies have the second-best 1-2-3 rotation trio in the league (after the Giants). Count on the wild card coming out of the NL East, which should make the races in the Central and West even more entertaining.

2. This makes the 2010 Phillies better than the ’09 Phillies. When Chase Utley returns, that is. The reason: Halladay, Oswalt and a back-to-form Hamels are better than Cliff Lee, Pedro Martinez and whoever was the Phillies’ third-best starter last October.

3. The Phillies still shouldn’t have traded Cliff Lee. No knock on Oswalt but he’s not pitching like Lee. And the Phillies would have had Lee for the entire season, not two months. And …

4. The Phillies gave up more to get Oswalt than they received from the Mariners for Lee.

Quick review:

For Lee, the Phillies received OF Tyson Gillies, RHP J.C. Ramirez and RHP Phillippe Aumont. At best, Gillies projects as a Brett Gardner-type left fielder, Ramirez as a back-end rotation guy and Aumont, who knows after the way this season has gone. The 6-7 right-hander has been a disappointment, being demoted from Class AA to A where he has been pitching in relief. "He’s been awful this year," a scout says. "His command is off the charts bad. He will flash you plus stuff but he can’t command. I think he’ll end up as a bullpen guy."

To get Oswalt, the Phillies traded LHP J.A. Happ, OF Anthony Gose and SS Jonathan Villar. Even if Gose and Villar don’t pan out, Happ already has shown he can win in the major leagues, going 12-4 with a 2.93 and winning Sporting News’ NL Rookie of the Year in 2009. He will make his first start for the Astros Friday night.

Gose, 19, has plenty of speed and a strong arm but is considered raw. For example, he has 36 stolen bases in Class A but has been caught 27 times. Villar, 19, was considered an up-and-comer by the Phillies. In low Class A this season, he was hitting .272 with 38 stolen bases — but 42 errors at shortstop.

5. Trading for Oswalt doesn’t hurt Philly’s chances of retaining Jayson Werth. Because the Astros have agreed to pay a large chunk of Oswalt’s salary — $11 million of the $23 million-plus he’s guaranteed through 2011, according to reports — the Phillies are in much the same situation with Werth as they already were. Which means …

6. Werth might not return next year but he figures to be with the Phillies as they make a run at history. They are trying to become the first team to win three straight NL pennants since the Cardinals in the early 1940s.

7. Joe Niekro’s record is safe. The late knuckle-baller will remain the Astros’ franchise leader in wins. Oswalt could have tied Niekro’s total of 144 with one more win, and he was scheduled to start for Houston Friday night. Instead, he’ll go for win No. 1 with the Phillies at Washington.

Stan McNeal is a writer for Sporting News. E-mail him at smcneal@sportingnews.com.

More trade candidates were injured than dealt during the past few days but don’t fret. The moves are coming.

The Angels made a big one Sunday afternoon by dealing for Diamondbacks right-hander Dan Haren. As Saturday’s nonwaiver deadline approaches, look for more clubs to get busy. As White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen says, "The closer it gets, the more talks there will be, the more intense they will be."

Three players rumored to be available could be off the market after being hurt. Royals outfielder David DeJesus broke his right thumb and is out for the season, A’s starter Ben Sheet reinjured his right elbow and missed his scheduled start (and figures to miss more), and Brewers slugger Corey Hart injured his right wrist running into a wall and did not play over the weekend. 

One reason for the slow shopping: The asking price for impact players has remained high. Put another way, by the ever-blunt Guillen: "All those general managers out there are crazy for what they’re asking." Count on that to change, too.

Sizing up possibilities for four potential difference-makers:

Roy Oswalt, RHP, Astros

With Cliff Lee landing in Texas and Haren now in Anaheim, Oswalt is the best starting pitcher available. He says he wants to be traded to a contender. Easier said than done: The 32-year-old’s contract, his no-trade protection and the Astros’ demands are proving to be stumbling blocks. Oswalt has told reporters he wants his $16 million option for 2012 guaranteed if he is traded, but has since softened that stance.

The Astros are looking for a starting pitcher to put in their rotation and a young, right-handed hitting first baseman. Oswalt’s No. 1 choice, the Cardinals, might not be able or willing to meet that price. A trade for Oswalt’s teammate, Brett Myers, makes more sense in many ways because Myers is on a one-year contract and has pitched well.

Prediction: The Phillies, hot on Oswalt’s trail last week, end up getting him. The deal, however, will mean the end of Jayson Werth’s time in Philadelphia.

Jayson Werth, OF, Phillies

A scout says Werth has let his impending payday as a free agent affect his play, which has resulted in an up-and-down season in which he often has pressed. Werth is not sure about his future. "I haven’t heard anything," he said the other day. His hitting, meanwhile, has warmed up. He has 10 hits in his past seven games, putting his season numbers at .286/.379/.506.

The Phillies could move the 31-year-old Werth because they are unlikely to meet his asking price next winter (which figures to be more than the $66 million for four years Jason Bay got from the Mets). Prospect Domonic Brown is hitting in Triple-A and playing like he’s ready to assume Werth’s spot in right field.

Prediction: The Phillies move Werth to the Rays, then send the players they receive from Tampa Bay to the Astros for Oswalt. 

Adam Dunn, 1B, Nationals

Dunn, one of the game’s premier sluggers, is in the last year of his contract. The Nationals have said they want to keep him but they have not extended his deal, making him a hot name in trade speculation.

The Nationals’ asking price has remained high — they reportedly want the White Sox to include highly regarded infielder Gordon Beckham in a deal.

Prediction: The Nationals won’t come down enough on their asking price and Dunn stays in Washington, and eventually re-signs. 

Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers

He’s a 26-year-old, lefty-hitting slugger who has Scott Boras as his agent and does not figure to be in Milwaukee when he becomes a free agent after the 2011 season. When Boras goes looking for that megadeal for Fielder, the uber-agent can sell his client’s power — Fielder already has seasons of 50, 46 and 34 homers — but will have to convince clubs that Fielder’s size will not hurt his future. Listed at 5-11 and 270 pounds, Fielder probably is closer to 300, and he never has been a good fielding first baseman.

Prediction: The Brewers hang onto Fielder, for now.

Stan McNeal is a writer for Sporting News. E-mail him at smcneal@sportingnews.com.

Stan McNeal analyzes three hot topics in Major League Baseball: 

Jaime Garcia is a leading candidate to win NL Rookie of the Year.

STRIKE 1: Garcia is the top rookie starter
If you haven’t been paying attention to Cardinals lefthander Jaime Garcia, it’s time to. For a number of reasons, including:

• If the NL rookie of the year vote were today, Garcia would be the deserved winner. He is 9-4 with a 2.21 ERA and a .234 batting average allowed — all easily the best of any rookie who has been up all season (and better than one who arrived later; Washington’s Stephen Strasburg is 5-2/2.32/.216).

• You might be able to do what scouts haven’t so far and identify exactly what type of pitcher he is. Garcia isn’t a soft-tossing lefty, but he isn’t a 95-mph fastball guy. "He’s a pitcher," said one scout who watched Garcia beat the Phillies with a seven-inning, one-run performance Wednesday night. "He’s got a good curve — not an (Adam) Wainwright curve but a good curve. Good fastball, and good changeup. I’ve seen him since high school and he’s always had the feel for pitching."

Garcia on his repertoire: "I started throwing a slider last year and I’ve worked a lot on my changeup. I’ve always had curveball and fastball. Now my sinker, slider and changeup are better."

He hesitates to use the slider in crunch time but none of the others.

• Unless the Cardinals trade for Roy Oswalt — don’t hold your breath — Garcia likely will remain their third-best starter. Considering he had Tommy John surgery less than two years ago and pitched only 37 2/3 innings in the minor leagues in 2009, you have to wonder how well he will hold up in August, September and, who knows, October.

Garcia already has made 19 starts and worked 110 innings. The Cardinals have not said — publicly, anyway — what his max will be, but they will continue to closely monitor his workload. He has pitched seven innings in only five starts and topped 100 pitches in six starts.

Manager Tony La Russa said Garcia’s next start will be pushed back next week to allow him a sixth day of rest (which, because of an off day, would keep Wainwright on regular rest).

The scout says that Garcia has a smooth enough delivery to work 200 innings this season. Of course, the scout would not have to take the hit if Garcia injured his arm in inning No. 201.

Said La Russa: "You watch his arm come through and he’s not out there like (Greg) Maddux but he’s together, and (his delivery) is not that taxing."

As La Russa was talking on the field at Busch Stadium, Garcia ran past on his morning-after jog of four laps around the field in 90-degree heat. "He’s a worker," La Russa said.

One more reason to pay attention to him.

STRIKE 2: Jimenez suddenly looks human
Rockies righthander Ubaldo Jimenez has let his chance to make history fade away. In four of his past five starts, he has allowed at least four earned runs. His once-minuscule ERA is up to 2.38, fourth-best in the NL.

Why the downturn? It isn’t a loss of his fastball. Jimenez regularly was hitting 98 mph Monday at Florida.

Jimenez’s biggest problem is not a new one for him, either. He has had the tendency to get away from his fastball and become too dependent on his secondary stuff. He’ll fall behind in the count and instead of using the fastball, he’ll want "to try to trick somebody," says manager Jim Tracy."

Sure enough, against the Marlins, Jimenez tried to fool outfielder Mike Stanton with a changeup — but he didn’t. The resulting three-run homer ended Jimenez’s night after 5 1/3 innings, his shortest start of the season.

Jimenez’s secondary pitches are so good that he can’t be blamed for wanting to throw them. He admits that having so many pitches — at least six that he’ll use most games — "can be a bad thing because you don’t know which pitch to use."

Expect him to figure it out.

David Eckstein’s numbers aren’t great, but the Padres play better with him in the lineup.

STRIKE 3: Padres must continue without their leader
David Eckstein, the starting shortstop for two World Series champions, might have been the most underrated player of the past decade.

Or not.

His .349 career on-base percentage as a leadoff hitter, his limited range and his four-finger throwing style never have overwhelmed scouts or statheads. But these are the numbers to watch after the Padres’ second baseman went on the disabled list with a calf injury Wednesday: 4-16 and 37-25.

The former was the Padres’ record when Eckstein was on the disabled list last July. The latter: Their record after his return, which was just a half-game off the Rockies’ league-best record during the stretch.

BONUS PITCH: Wishful thinking?
Tonight is Adrian Gonzalez bobblehead night at Class AAA Portland. That’s Portland, Maine, the home of the Red Sox’s Class AA affiliate and not Portland, Ore., home of the Padres’ Class AAA club. Perhaps the Sea Dogs were being optimistic in thinking that Gonzalez would be on the Red Sox by now? Not really. Gonzalez enjoyed a strong season in 2002 when he and the Sea Dogs were part of the Marlins’ organization.

Stan McNeal is a writer for Sporting News. E-mail him at smcneal@sportingnews.com.

CINCINNATI — The bases are loaded, there are no outs in the eighth inning and the Reds are clinging to a one-run lead. The near-capacity crowd rises not once, not twice but several times as Arthur Rhodes stares down the Rockies’ hitters.

When Rhodes throws a 92-mph fastball past Carlos Gonzalez to end the threat, he pumps his left fist and the place erupts. The Reds go on to win, 3-2. 

Veteran lefty reliever Arthur Rhodes made his first All Star team this year.

And it feels like October at Great American Ball Park — as much as possible on a steamy July night, anyway. 

McNeal: Which of the NL’s surprise teams has staying power?

After a decade of disappointment, Cincinnati is sensing a special season from the Reds. They lead the NL in offense. Their rotation is overflowing with candidates. Their defense has been superb.

The Reds have the easiest second-half schedule of any contender. They have been in first or second place since early May, have lost once since the All-Star break and trail the Cardinals by just a half-game in the NL Central. A nice turnaround for a team that hasn’t had a winning season since Ken Griffey Jr. arrived in town 10 years ago.

The Reds have assembled a roster that can hang with the Cardinals. First baseman Joey Votto, 26, is having a breakout season to match St. Louis slugger Albert Pujols. The Reds have a decided edge around the rest of the infield with second baseman Brandon Phillips, shortstop Orlando Cabrera and third baseman Scott Rolen. The Reds don’t have Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter to lead their rotation, but they have greater depth. Neither club has a rally-proof bullpen, though the Reds have an All-Star, Rhodes, in theirs.

But sorry, Cincinnati. You should keep those "Hunt for Red October" banners in storage for now. The Reds’ run of consecutive losing seasons will end in 2010, but they will have to wait until next year to knock the Cardinals from the NL Central’s perch.

On one hand, the Reds are just too young. And on the other, too old.

They haven’t been there

As solid as Cincinnati’s rotation has been, no one knows what to expect down the stretch because of its inexperience in these situations. Bronson Arroyo is the only Reds starter who has pitched in the postseason, or even in a pennant race.

Four rookies have made at least two starts, and Aroldis Chapman, who remains in the minors to develop better command of his 95-mph-plus fastball, hasn’t been one of them. Of the youngsters, only Mike Leake and Travis Wood figure to stay in the rotation when it reaches full health. And that is only if the Reds stick with Wood, who has dazzled in his first four starts, once injured veteran Aaron Harang (5.02 ERA) is ready. Edinson Volquez’s return last week from Tommy John surgery could not have gone better, but manager Dusty Baker knows "he’ll be better next year than this."

Scott Rolen has battled injuries and illness in recent weeks.

Arroyo even admits the starters’ success has been "part luck" and the last two months of the season could be a roller-coaster ride. "There’s going to be a point where we slide downhill a little between now and the end of the season," Arroyo says. "Our hope is that we can weather that storm enough when the Cardinals go through the same thing and we don’t fall too many games behind." 

Age matters

The club brought in Rolen and Cabrera as what Baker calls "foundation guys" because of their postseason experience and clubhouse presence. Problem is, Rolen can’t help from the bench. After failing to play in more than 128 games in any of the past three seasons, Rolen made the All-Star team thanks to a first half when he played like he did as a mainstay in the powerhouse Cardinals’ lineup of the mid-2000s. Baker says Rolen looked as good as the old days but "the difference is, he could play more then."

Since the break, Rolen has been sidelined by a stomach virus and a hamstring injury that might land him on the disabled list.

To steady an up-and-down bullpen, general manager Walt Jocketty recruited a couple of aging relievers, Russ Springer, 41, and Jason Isringhausen, 37, whom he had on his side when he was running the Cardinals. Neither has pitched in the majors since last season, and might not this year.

Springer debuted at Class AAA last week while Isringhausen had yet to accept the Reds’ contract offer after a Tuesday tryout. Both would bring considerable postseason experience to a bullpen that ranks 13th in the NL (4.37 ERA) with a closer, Francisco Cordero, who ranks among the league leaders with six blown saves.

At the least, the old guys would give Rhodes, a first-time All-Star at 40, some clubhouse company around his age.

At best, they could return to pitching in the postseason—if they stick around until next year.

Stan McNeal is a writer for Sporting News. E-mail him at smcneal@sportingnews.com.

Four things to look forward to this week:

Stephen Strasburg could have his most difficult test so far in Cincinnati on Wednesday.

1. Ubaldo Jimenez vs. Anibal Sanchez, Monday night. Any time Jimenez pitches, a no-hitter could happen. As Rockies manager Jim Tracy, says, "He’s going to do it again and he’s going to do it more than once." This outing in South Florida has a little more no-hitter history working for it: Both Jimenez and Sanchez have pitched no-hitters that were caught by Miguel Olivo and had Jeff Kellogg as the home-plate umpire. And guess what? Word is, Kellogg will be behind the plate Monday night.

2. Stephen Strasburg vs. the Reds, Wednesday night. Nothing like bringing the game’s hottest name to one of the NL’s hottest spots. Cincinnati sizzled all weekend, and we’re not talking only about the weather. The Reds celebrated the 20-year reunion of their 1990 World Championship team with huge — and loud — crowds. Judging by the way the crowd was yelling in the eighth inning of a tight game on Friday night, Cincinnati is ready for a winner. Strasburg should be in for his toughest test to date: The Reds have the NL’s highest-scoring offense.

3. Angels at Rangers, Thursday-Sunday. By this time next week, the Rangers could be very well on their way to unseating the Angels. Texas has a 3.5-game lead over LA and a much better lineup. The Rangers already have traded for Cliff Lee and Bengie Molina, meaning some club is going to have to make some shrewd moves to beat out Texas for the unofficial title of "biggest winner at the trade deadline." And guess who starts for the home team on Thursday? Lee, who still will be looking for his first win as a Ranger. The Angels have managed to stay in second mainly because of their 10-3 domination of last-place Seattle.

4. A big trade. It’s that time of year, right? How about Prince Fielder to the Rays? Doesn’t make sense. How about to the White Sox? Kenny Williams went for it last year by acquiring Alex Rios and Jake Peavy, and the White Sox GM is not the type to shy away because of Peavy’s season-ending injury. With Paul Konerko a free agent after the season, Williams could find some money to keep Fielder around for at least another year.

Stan McNeal is a writer for Sporting News. E-mail him at smcneal@sportingnews.com.