In recent years, the NFL has seen significant annual turnover in its head coaching ranks. And while plenty of men occupied flame-flecked seats in 2009, fewer than 10 percent of the teams opted to make a change once the dust of a failed season (for the three teams involved) settled.
With two Super Bowl rings and an All-Pro QB, the bar is set high for Mike Shanahan.
The question of whether each new coach succeeds in his first year will be based on specific expectations that apply to each team.
So let’s take a look at what it will take for each of the three new coaches to come out of 2010 as something other than abject failures.
Mike Shanahan, Redskins
The former Broncos coach faces the highest expectations, due both to his past accomplishments (two Super Bowl wins) and the team’s "win-now" offseason moves. The biggest of these moves resulted in the highest nudging of the bar north — the trade for quarterback Donovan McNabb.
But the Redskins remain in the most competitive division in the league. Move them to the NFC West, and they become the instant favorites. In the NFC East, it’ll be a challenge to get out of the basement.
That doesn’t mean the fan base (or the owner) will settle for another fourth-place finish. In the days when all teams squat on a 0-0 record, optimism builds. And bringing in a guy like McNabb will make the locals expect the Redskins to contend for a wild-card berth.
Complicating matters has been the ill-advised decision to shift from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4. The Redskins had the personnel for a 4-3, and the defense wasn’t the problem in 2009. Changing philosophies already has proven to be a mistake, given that defensive lineman Albert Haynesworth has seized on the shift to support a boycott of the offseason program and a public attempt to get out of town.
In the end, Shanahan likely needs to get close to .500, if not above it, to be regarded a success in Year One. Given that six games will be played within the division, that may be too tall an order.
Pete Carroll, Seahawks
Carroll returns to the NFL with the kind of rah-rah rhetoric that doesn’t often resonate with grown men who are motivated mainly by money. (Then again, money apparently was one of the motivations at Carroll’s last collegiate stop, too.)
The problem with talking big? Fans hear it, and they begin to believe it.
Regardless of what the talent (or lack thereof) on the roster suggests.
That said, Carroll and GM John Schneider have brought in talented new faces, like left tackle Russell Okung, safety Earl Thomas, and receiver Golden Tate. Carroll’s decision to trade for former USC running back LenDale White and then cut him shows that there will be no sacred cows, and that the only way to get paid will be to do things Carroll’s way.
Whether it works remains to be seen. But Carroll’s success at Southern Cal (which has been tempered a bit by the sanctions imposed against the program) and his high-energy confidence raise the stakes, especially in a weak division.
It’ll be a surprise if the Seahawks can muster more than six wins, but failure to do so will still be met with disappointment in a city that believes a new coach can create the same turnaround that Mike Smith brought to the Falcons, Tony Sparano brought to the Dolphins, and John Harbaugh brought to the Ravens in 2008.
The best news for Carroll? Even if he doesn’t win a game, the Seahawks won’t be likely to fire a head coach after only one season for a second straight year.
Chan Gailey, Bills
Gailey has a long history of being associated with successful football programs. He now runs a team that hasn’t had much success since the last of those four straight Super Bowl appearances.
Of the three new coaches, Gailey faces the lowest expectations. And for darn good reason. The cupboard generally is regarded as dog-bone bare in Buffalo, with a three-headed, none-of-the-above quarterback situation and an offensive line that does few offensive things to opposing defensive linemen.
With three high-quality teams in the AFC East, no one expects the Bills to do much. And this means that the bar will be very, very low for Gailey in his first season on the job.
Still, it’s possible that Gailey is the most vulnerable of the three new coaches. With owner Ralph Wilson well into the Leon Hess phase of his tenure, the average male life expectancy nearly two decades into the rear-view mirror, Wilson could decide after yet another bad season to push the chips into the middle of the table and go after a big-name coach who possibly would be able to deliver that long-coveted Super Bowl title.
Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.
In recent years, the NFL has seen significant annual turnover in its head coaching ranks. And while plenty of men occupied flame-flecked seats in 2009, fewer than 10 percent of the teams opted to make a change once the dust of a failed season (for the three teams involved) settled.
With two Super Bowl rings and an All-Pro QB, the bar is set high for Mike Shanahan.
The question of whether each new coach succeeds in his first year will be based on specific expectations that apply to each team.
So let’s take a look at what it will take for each of the three new coaches to come out of 2010 as something other than abject failures.
Mike Shanahan, Redskins
The former Broncos coach faces the highest expectations, due both to his past accomplishments (two Super Bowl wins) and the team’s "win-now" offseason moves. The biggest of these moves resulted in the highest nudging of the bar north — the trade for quarterback Donovan McNabb.
But the Redskins remain in the most competitive division in the league. Move them to the NFC West, and they become the instant favorites. In the NFC East, it’ll be a challenge to get out of the basement.
That doesn’t mean the fan base (or the owner) will settle for another fourth-place finish. In the days when all teams squat on a 0-0 record, optimism builds. And bringing in a guy like McNabb will make the locals expect the Redskins to contend for a wild-card berth.
Complicating matters has been the ill-advised decision to shift from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4. The Redskins had the personnel for a 4-3, and the defense wasn’t the problem in 2009. Changing philosophies already has proven to be a mistake, given that defensive lineman Albert Haynesworth has seized on the shift to support a boycott of the offseason program and a public attempt to get out of town.
In the end, Shanahan likely needs to get close to .500, if not above it, to be regarded a success in Year One. Given that six games will be played within the division, that may be too tall an order.
Pete Carroll, Seahawks
Carroll returns to the NFL with the kind of rah-rah rhetoric that doesn’t often resonate with grown men who are motivated mainly by money. (Then again, money apparently was one of the motivations at Carroll’s last collegiate stop, too.)
The problem with talking big? Fans hear it, and they begin to believe it.
Regardless of what the talent (or lack thereof) on the roster suggests.
That said, Carroll and GM John Schneider have brought in talented new faces, like left tackle Russell Okung, safety Earl Thomas, and receiver Golden Tate. Carroll’s decision to trade for former USC running back LenDale White and then cut him shows that there will be no sacred cows, and that the only way to get paid will be to do things Carroll’s way.
Whether it works remains to be seen. But Carroll’s success at Southern Cal (which has been tempered a bit by the sanctions imposed against the program) and his high-energy confidence raise the stakes, especially in a weak division.
It’ll be a surprise if the Seahawks can muster more than six wins, but failure to do so will still be met with disappointment in a city that believes a new coach can create the same turnaround that Mike Smith brought to the Falcons, Tony Sparano brought to the Dolphins, and John Harbaugh brought to the Ravens in 2008.
The best news for Carroll? Even if he doesn’t win a game, the Seahawks won’t be likely to fire a head coach after only one season for a second straight year.
Chan Gailey, Bills
Gailey has a long history of being associated with successful football programs. He now runs a team that hasn’t had much success since the last of those four straight Super Bowl appearances.
Of the three new coaches, Gailey faces the lowest expectations. And for darn good reason. The cupboard generally is regarded as dog-bone bare in Buffalo, with a three-headed, none-of-the-above quarterback situation and an offensive line that does few offensive things to opposing defensive linemen.
With three high-quality teams in the AFC East, no one expects the Bills to do much. And this means that the bar will be very, very low for Gailey in his first season on the job.
Still, it’s possible that Gailey is the most vulnerable of the three new coaches. With owner Ralph Wilson well into the Leon Hess phase of his tenure, the average male life expectancy nearly two decades into the rear-view mirror, Wilson could decide after yet another bad season to push the chips into the middle of the table and go after a big-name coach who possibly would be able to deliver that long-coveted Super Bowl title.
Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.
Whenever someone complains about the money paid to NFL players, I resort to the basic truth that we’re all worth precisely whatever someone will pay us.
Do players like Tom Brady earn enough money considering the phyiscal toll their body’s take?
The concept applies to all athletes, musicians and actors. When folks do something that other people gladly will surrender money to watch them do, the dollars necessarily skyrocket — and the producers of such events typically pocket a tidy profit even after paying out those supposedly exorbitant salaries.
Recently, it’s become clear that football players fall on the very low end of the entertainment-dollar spectrum. The news cycle contains repeated references to multiple basketball players who are considering whether to "settle" for $20 million per year, the maximum a new team can pay them, or to stay put for the tidy sum of $26 million per year.
Meanwhile, no NFL player earns $20 million per year, even though the NFL has become, far and away, the most popular and profitable sport in America.
Sure, pro football rosters have roughly five times the number of players as NBA teams. And the NFL season contains far fewer opportunities to charge folks top dollar for a ticket, a program, a beer and processed pig parts painted pink. Still, how can so many NBA players earn $20 million per year with not a single NFL player cracking that threshold?
It gets even better. The Orlando Magic signed a backup point guard, Chris Duhon (if you’ve never heard of him, you’re not alone), to a deal worth $3.75 million per year. In 2010, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady will earn a base salary of $3.5 million.
Though Brady has made plenty more via bonuses and restructures and other payments in prior years of his contract, it doesn’t change the fact that one of the best players in pro football history will have a base salary worth less than the average annual payout to a guy who begins each game wearing warm-ups, and who need not worry about getting his knee blown out by a low hit or his head taken off by a high one.
So while the NFL has articulated good reasons for its hard-line stance regarding the next labor deal, insisting that the players take a smaller piece of the pie in the hopes of growing a much bigger one, the players earn every dollar they get — and it’s hard to fault them for trying to get more, especially when compared to the dollars players get in other sports.
The recent findings regarding the inner workings of the late Chris Henry’s brain increase the importance of football players getting full and fair compensation. Not only do they risk, on every snap, acute injury that could cause serious and immediate harm, but they also risk, on every snap, cumulative, chronic harm.
Though NFL players receive more than sufficient pay in comparison to the rest of society, the disparity between the money they make and the dollars paid to men who play less profitable sports like basketball and baseball, combined with the growing sensitivity to the risks inherent to playing football, could prompt more and more elite athletes to look first to one of the other sports, with football only as a fallback.
Then again, maybe they already do. Maybe the best athletes are playing baseball and basketball.
Unless and until playing pro soccer is worth $20 million per year, the NFL should be fine. Still, no one should ever say that football players make too much money, unless they’re prepared to complain even more loudly about the salaries generated by other sports.
Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.
Whenever someone complains about the money paid to NFL players, I resort to the basic truth that we’re all worth precisely whatever someone will pay us.
Do players like Tom Brady earn enough money considering the phyiscal toll their body’s take?
The concept applies to all athletes, musicians and actors. When folks do something that other people gladly will surrender money to watch them do, the dollars necessarily skyrocket — and the producers of such events typically pocket a tidy profit even after paying out those supposedly exorbitant salaries.
Recently, it’s become clear that football players fall on the very low end of the entertainment-dollar spectrum. The news cycle contains repeated references to multiple basketball players who are considering whether to "settle" for $20 million per year, the maximum a new team can pay them, or to stay put for the tidy sum of $26 million per year.
Meanwhile, no NFL player earns $20 million per year, even though the NFL has become, far and away, the most popular and profitable sport in America.
Sure, pro football rosters have roughly five times the number of players as NBA teams. And the NFL season contains far fewer opportunities to charge folks top dollar for a ticket, a program, a beer and processed pig parts painted pink. Still, how can so many NBA players earn $20 million per year with not a single NFL player cracking that threshold?
It gets even better. The Orlando Magic signed a backup point guard, Chris Duhon (if you’ve never heard of him, you’re not alone), to a deal worth $3.75 million per year. In 2010, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady will earn a base salary of $3.5 million.
Though Brady has made plenty more via bonuses and restructures and other payments in prior years of his contract, it doesn’t change the fact that one of the best players in pro football history will have a base salary worth less than the average annual payout to a guy who begins each game wearing warm-ups, and who need not worry about getting his knee blown out by a low hit or his head taken off by a high one.
So while the NFL has articulated good reasons for its hard-line stance regarding the next labor deal, insisting that the players take a smaller piece of the pie in the hopes of growing a much bigger one, the players earn every dollar they get — and it’s hard to fault them for trying to get more, especially when compared to the dollars players get in other sports.
The recent findings regarding the inner workings of the late Chris Henry’s brain increase the importance of football players getting full and fair compensation. Not only do they risk, on every snap, acute injury that could cause serious and immediate harm, but they also risk, on every snap, cumulative, chronic harm.
Though NFL players receive more than sufficient pay in comparison to the rest of society, the disparity between the money they make and the dollars paid to men who play less profitable sports like basketball and baseball, combined with the growing sensitivity to the risks inherent to playing football, could prompt more and more elite athletes to look first to one of the other sports, with football only as a fallback.
Then again, maybe they already do. Maybe the best athletes are playing baseball and basketball.
Unless and until playing pro soccer is worth $20 million per year, the NFL should be fine. Still, no one should ever say that football players make too much money, unless they’re prepared to complain even more loudly about the salaries generated by other sports.
Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.
NFL teams typically hate to admit a mistake. And so they hang on to guys who don’t belong much longer than they should.
Earlier this year, the Raiders realized it was time to cut the cord on quarterback JaMarcus Russell. After the move, many who had loudly criticized the franchise began to wonder whether Oakland might be ready for a resurrection.
What other teams could inspire confidence by making a move that simply needs to be made? Let’s consider seven players.
The Eagles rolled the dice on Mike Vick, but it hasn’t paid off.
Mike Vick
The Eagles need a quality backup for starting quarterback Kevin Kolb. The Eagles don’t need a season-long sideshow from a wildcat gimmick who simply isn’t prepared to serve as Kolb’s understudy.
So the Eagles should seize on the recent controversy involving Vick to close the door on the failed one-year experiment with him.
Even if Vick stays in Philadelphia, the Eagles need a competent veteran backup with experience in the West Coast offense. So they should just dump Vick now, sign Jeff Garcia and move on.
Pride and ego could get in the way. The Eagles went out on a limb last year to sign Vick, and cutting him now amounts to an admission that they never should have signed him in the first place.
By the way, they never should have signed him in the first place.
Reggie Bush
The Saints rely on a multi-headed attack at tailback, and Bush is only a bit player in the offense. But the Saints owe him a base salary of $8 million for 2010.
On one hand, the Saints should have every right in an uncapped year to spend way too much on a locally beloved role player who’ll never live up to the hype. On the other hand, the Saints shouldn’t ignore the connection between Bush’s overcompensation and their inability to sign the franchise’s top running back, Pierre Thomas, to a long-term deal.
Ideally, the Saints would pressure Bush into taking less money. But he’d most likely refuse, and then the Saints would have to decide whether to call his bluff by cutting him.
So they should just cut him now. They won’t, but they should.
Albert Haynesworth
The Redskins have an opportunity to unite their roster under new coach Mike Shanahan by telling the reluctant defensive lineman that, if he doesn’t want to be part of the team, the team doesn’t want him.
Forget trying to trade him for a handful of peanuts and a ’98 Camaro. Make a loud and clear statement by cutting Haynesworth.
If the Redskins are concerned about saving face, they can take solace in the fact that Haynesworth’s decision to blow off mandatory minicamp voids $9 million in guaranteed base salaries for 2010 and 2011. Though cutting Haynesworth now wouldn’t wipe away the misguided decision to pay him a $21 million roster bonus on April 1, making a strong statement about one of the NFL’s most disliked men would have a far greater intangible value to the new regime in D.C.
Deion Branch
Believe it or not, Branch has never had a 1,000-yard receiving season in his eight-year career.
He came close in 2005, his last year in New England, but fell two yards short.
Since Seattle traded a first-round pick for Branch and signed him to a six-year, $39 million contract, his production steadily has dropped, and his salary has increased.
Last year, Branch made more than $100,000 per reception. This year, his salary rises to $5.47 million. It no longer makes sense for the Seahawks to wait for Branch to deliver. He never will.
Roy Williams
Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has shown he’s not afraid to admit a mistake. Last year, he did it twice — with receiver Terrell Owens and cornerback Pacman Jones.
Now, Jones needs to eat a Texas-sized slice of humble pie and part ways with one of the biggest blunders of his tenure with the team. He needs to cut Williams.
Arguably, the handwriting already is on the wall less than two years after the Cowboys gave up a first-round pick, a third-round pick and more for a receiver who’s now averaging $9 million per year. After Miles Austin’s breakout in 2009 and the first-round selection of Dez Bryant in 2010, the Cowboys simply don’t need Williams.
Having Williams around gives the Cowboys leverage against an extended holdout by Bryant. However, once Bryant puts pen to paper, Jones should put shoe to Williams’ rear end.
Bob Sanders
In 2006, the Colts were horrible against the run, prompting concerns that the Chiefs would quickly bounce Indy from the playoffs by using a heavy dose of Larry Johnson.
Then the safety Sanders returned from injury, and Johnson gained 32 yards on 13 carries in a 23-8 loss. Three games later, the Colts hoisted a silver trophy in a South Florida downpour.
Sanders missed nearly all of the 2009 season, but the Colts didn’t miss Sanders. They made it back to the Super Bowl, and they didn’t lose it because of his replacement.
The injury-prone defender packs a wallop when he’s healthy, but he’s healthy too rarely to justify his salary.
So the Colts should make the tough decision to move on.
Cedric Benson
The Bengals routinely are criticized for harboring criminals. They do so not because they hope to change lives, but because they know a bargain when they see one.
Two years ago, they saw a bargain in Benson when the Bears dumped the former fourth-overall draft pick after two arrests in a month. And the Bengals got 1,251 yards out of him in only 13 games last season.
With 2010 being a contract year for Benson, they can expect even more.
But Benson has gotten in trouble again, and Bernard Scott was solid in his rookie season. Scott, who slid in the draft due to his own off-field issues, could become the lead dog for the Bengals.
The Bengals most likely will give Benson another year of their patent-pending second chances. If they do, they’ll probably see someone else offer Benson big money in 2011. That’s all the more reason to make a rare (for the Bengals) example out of Benson. Then, they can get ready to give a few second chances to Scott.
Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.
NFL teams typically hate to admit a mistake. And so they hang on to guys who don’t belong much longer than they should.
Earlier this year, the Raiders realized it was time to cut the cord on quarterback JaMarcus Russell. After the move, many who had loudly criticized the franchise began to wonder whether Oakland might be ready for a resurrection.
What other teams could inspire confidence by making a move that simply needs to be made? Let’s consider seven players.
The Eagles rolled the dice on Mike Vick, but it hasn’t paid off.
Mike Vick
The Eagles need a quality backup for starting quarterback Kevin Kolb. The Eagles don’t need a season-long sideshow from a wildcat gimmick who simply isn’t prepared to serve as Kolb’s understudy.
So the Eagles should seize on the recent controversy involving Vick to close the door on the failed one-year experiment with him.
Even if Vick stays in Philadelphia, the Eagles need a competent veteran backup with experience in the West Coast offense. So they should just dump Vick now, sign Jeff Garcia and move on.
Pride and ego could get in the way. The Eagles went out on a limb last year to sign Vick, and cutting him now amounts to an admission that they never should have signed him in the first place.
By the way, they never should have signed him in the first place.
Reggie Bush
The Saints rely on a multi-headed attack at tailback, and Bush is only a bit player in the offense. But the Saints owe him a base salary of $8 million for 2010.
On one hand, the Saints should have every right in an uncapped year to spend way too much on a locally beloved role player who’ll never live up to the hype. On the other hand, the Saints shouldn’t ignore the connection between Bush’s overcompensation and their inability to sign the franchise’s top running back, Pierre Thomas, to a long-term deal.
Ideally, the Saints would pressure Bush into taking less money. But he’d most likely refuse, and then the Saints would have to decide whether to call his bluff by cutting him.
So they should just cut him now. They won’t, but they should.
Albert Haynesworth
The Redskins have an opportunity to unite their roster under new coach Mike Shanahan by telling the reluctant defensive lineman that, if he doesn’t want to be part of the team, the team doesn’t want him.
Forget trying to trade him for a handful of peanuts and a ’98 Camaro. Make a loud and clear statement by cutting Haynesworth.
If the Redskins are concerned about saving face, they can take solace in the fact that Haynesworth’s decision to blow off mandatory minicamp voids $9 million in guaranteed base salaries for 2010 and 2011. Though cutting Haynesworth now wouldn’t wipe away the misguided decision to pay him a $21 million roster bonus on April 1, making a strong statement about one of the NFL’s most disliked men would have a far greater intangible value to the new regime in D.C.
Deion Branch
Believe it or not, Branch has never had a 1,000-yard receiving season in his eight-year career.
He came close in 2005, his last year in New England, but fell two yards short.
Since Seattle traded a first-round pick for Branch and signed him to a six-year, $39 million contract, his production steadily has dropped, and his salary has increased.
Last year, Branch made more than $100,000 per reception. This year, his salary rises to $5.47 million. It no longer makes sense for the Seahawks to wait for Branch to deliver. He never will.
Roy Williams
Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has shown he’s not afraid to admit a mistake. Last year, he did it twice — with receiver Terrell Owens and cornerback Pacman Jones.
Now, Jones needs to eat a Texas-sized slice of humble pie and part ways with one of the biggest blunders of his tenure with the team. He needs to cut Williams.
Arguably, the handwriting already is on the wall less than two years after the Cowboys gave up a first-round pick, a third-round pick and more for a receiver who’s now averaging $9 million per year. After Miles Austin’s breakout in 2009 and the first-round selection of Dez Bryant in 2010, the Cowboys simply don’t need Williams.
Having Williams around gives the Cowboys leverage against an extended holdout by Bryant. However, once Bryant puts pen to paper, Jones should put shoe to Williams’ rear end.
Bob Sanders
In 2006, the Colts were horrible against the run, prompting concerns that the Chiefs would quickly bounce Indy from the playoffs by using a heavy dose of Larry Johnson.
Then the safety Sanders returned from injury, and Johnson gained 32 yards on 13 carries in a 23-8 loss. Three games later, the Colts hoisted a silver trophy in a South Florida downpour.
Sanders missed nearly all of the 2009 season, but the Colts didn’t miss Sanders. They made it back to the Super Bowl, and they didn’t lose it because of his replacement.
The injury-prone defender packs a wallop when he’s healthy, but he’s healthy too rarely to justify his salary.
So the Colts should make the tough decision to move on.
Cedric Benson
The Bengals routinely are criticized for harboring criminals. They do so not because they hope to change lives, but because they know a bargain when they see one.
Two years ago, they saw a bargain in Benson when the Bears dumped the former fourth-overall draft pick after two arrests in a month. And the Bengals got 1,251 yards out of him in only 13 games last season.
With 2010 being a contract year for Benson, they can expect even more.
But Benson has gotten in trouble again, and Bernard Scott was solid in his rookie season. Scott, who slid in the draft due to his own off-field issues, could become the lead dog for the Bengals.
The Bengals most likely will give Benson another year of their patent-pending second chances. If they do, they’ll probably see someone else offer Benson big money in 2011. That’s all the more reason to make a rare (for the Bengals) example out of Benson. Then, they can get ready to give a few second chances to Scott.
Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.
In most years, June is one of the rare months in which the NFL commissioner can relax a bit before another season ramps up. This year, Roger Goodell has a trio of thorny problems.
NFL commissioner implied Titans quarterback Vince Young won’t receive a suspension for the misdemeanor assault.
Trouble has found Titans quarterback Vince Young, Eagles quarterback Michael Vick and Lions president Tom Lewand, and in time Goodell must resolve each matter in accordance with the precedent he has set under the personal conduct policy.
Vince Young
On the surface, Young’s situation is simple: He was cited for misdemeanor assault after an incident at a Dallas strip club, and the availability of video suggests that Young will plead guilty or no contest to the charges.
Based on the precedents involving Cardinals linebacker Joey Porter, a first-time offender who was fined in the amount of a single game check after pleading no contest to misdemeanor assault in 2008, and another first-time offender, Jets receiver Braylon Edwards, who reportedly won’t be suspended after pleading no contest to misdemeanor assault arising from an October 2009 incident, Young likely will get a fine but no suspension.
Perhaps there’s a catch, though. When FoxSports.com reported that Goodell was unlikely to suspend Young, the league quickly clarified the remarks, explaining that Goodell said nothing about Young’s likely or unlikely fate. It’s possible the league chimed in because Goodell plans to use trouble-making quarterbacks for sending messages to the other players, just as many think Goodell did with Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
Michael Vick
Vick apparently did nothing wrong in connection with the shooting at his 30th birthday party. Whether he had left the party before the shot rang out (the reports in this regard are conflicting), no one claims Vick had a role in the incident.
The problem arises from the fact the bullet hit Quanis Phillips, one of the co-defendants in the dogfighting case that landed Vick in federal prison. Vick’s probation requires him to steer clear of convicted felons, and Phillips’ presence at the party calls into question whether Vick ran afoul of his probation and/or his NFL reinstatement.
If the feds persuade a judge that Vick violated the terms of his probation, Goodell’s decision will be simple. Vick necessarily would be suspended because he’d be back in jail.
What if the feds do nothing? Under the precedent Goodell set in the Roethlisberger case, the league itself may investigate whether Vick ran afoul of the terms of his probation and, in turn, his reinstatement.
At this point, it’s too early to know how this will play out. But Steelers fans who continue to believe that Goodell unfairly made an example out of a starting quarterback who never was arrested will be paying close attention.
Update: Video calls Vick lawyer’s timeline into question
Tom Lewand
Over the past year, the league has dealt with a couple of situations involving non-players who have faced allegations of wrongdoing. Former Raiders defensive assistant Randy Hanson met with coach Tom Cable in August 2009 and left with a broken jaw. In May, Saints head coach Sean Payton was accused of abusing Vicodin, and assistant head coach Joe Vitt was accused of stealing it.
To date, the league has not punished any of them.
Lions president Tom Lewand’s drunk-driving arrest, on the other hand, compels swift and decisive action. Given that his blood-alcohol concentration was more than twice the legal limit and that he holds a lofty position within the organization, Lewand’s alleged misbehavior can’t be ignored.
But Lions owner William Clay Ford apparently plans to do so. If Goodell follows suit, he’ll face intense criticism from the players’ union.
In the end, each situation presents a different challenge for Goodell. And none of these cases would have arisen if Young, Vick and Lewand had learned from the examples provided by others.
Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.
In most years, June is one of the rare months in which the NFL commissioner can relax a bit before another season ramps up. This year, Roger Goodell has a trio of thorny problems.
NFL commissioner implied Titans quarterback Vince Young won’t receive a suspension for the misdemeanor assault.
Trouble has found Titans quarterback Vince Young, Eagles quarterback Michael Vick and Lions president Tom Lewand, and in time Goodell must resolve each matter in accordance with the precedent he has set under the personal conduct policy.
Vince Young
On the surface, Young’s situation is simple: He was cited for misdemeanor assault after an incident at a Dallas strip club, and the availability of video suggests that Young will plead guilty or no contest to the charges.
Based on the precedents involving Cardinals linebacker Joey Porter, a first-time offender who was fined in the amount of a single game check after pleading no contest to misdemeanor assault in 2008, and another first-time offender, Jets receiver Braylon Edwards, who reportedly won’t be suspended after pleading no contest to misdemeanor assault arising from an October 2009 incident, Young likely will get a fine but no suspension.
Perhaps there’s a catch, though. When FoxSports.com reported that Goodell was unlikely to suspend Young, the league quickly clarified the remarks, explaining that Goodell said nothing about Young’s likely or unlikely fate. It’s possible the league chimed in because Goodell plans to use trouble-making quarterbacks for sending messages to the other players, just as many think Goodell did with Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
Michael Vick
Vick apparently did nothing wrong in connection with the shooting at his 30th birthday party. Whether he had left the party before the shot rang out (the reports in this regard are conflicting), no one claims Vick had a role in the incident.
The problem arises from the fact the bullet hit Quanis Phillips, one of the co-defendants in the dogfighting case that landed Vick in federal prison. Vick’s probation requires him to steer clear of convicted felons, and Phillips’ presence at the party calls into question whether Vick ran afoul of his probation and/or his NFL reinstatement.
If the feds persuade a judge that Vick violated the terms of his probation, Goodell’s decision will be simple. Vick necessarily would be suspended because he’d be back in jail.
What if the feds do nothing? Under the precedent Goodell set in the Roethlisberger case, the league itself may investigate whether Vick ran afoul of the terms of his probation and, in turn, his reinstatement.
At this point, it’s too early to know how this will play out. But Steelers fans who continue to believe that Goodell unfairly made an example out of a starting quarterback who never was arrested will be paying close attention.
Update: Video calls Vick lawyer’s timeline into question
Tom Lewand
Over the past year, the league has dealt with a couple of situations involving non-players who have faced allegations of wrongdoing. Former Raiders defensive assistant Randy Hanson met with coach Tom Cable in August 2009 and left with a broken jaw. In May, Saints head coach Sean Payton was accused of abusing Vicodin, and assistant head coach Joe Vitt was accused of stealing it.
To date, the league has not punished any of them.
Lions president Tom Lewand’s drunk-driving arrest, on the other hand, compels swift and decisive action. Given that his blood-alcohol concentration was more than twice the legal limit and that he holds a lofty position within the organization, Lewand’s alleged misbehavior can’t be ignored.
But Lions owner William Clay Ford apparently plans to do so. If Goodell follows suit, he’ll face intense criticism from the players’ union.
In the end, each situation presents a different challenge for Goodell. And none of these cases would have arisen if Young, Vick and Lewand had learned from the examples provided by others.
Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.
The surprise arrival of Marc Bulger in Baltimore on Wednesday gave the Ravens a new backup quarterback. More importantly, it gave me an idea for a slow-time column topic.
Backup QB Curtis Painter played in two games for the Colts in 2009.
We know that, every year, injuries will happen. We never know exactly when, where, or (most importantly) to whom they’ll occur. When a starting quarterback takes a knee to the head or a head to the midsection, the most popular guy in town suddenly is forced to pull the iPod buds out of his ears and say, "Did somebody call my name?"
So which teams have the worst and best situations at backup quarterback? Let’s take a look.
The Worst
1. Indianapolis Colts. Aside from Peyton Manning, the Colts have four quarterbacks on the roster. And they’d better hope that none of them ever has to take a snap in a game that counts.
Curtis Painter impressed no one during his garbage-time duty in 2009, and no one expects anything from Tom Brandstater, Drew Willy, and Tim Hiller.
So if Peyton goes down, it’s pretty much over in Indy. Instantly.
2. New Orleans Saints. The same can be said in New Orleans. Mark Brunell became a free agent, and he reportedly plans to sign with the Jets in late July. And the backups currently are Chase Daniel, who has never played in a regular-season game, and Sean Canfield.
But they may have a secret weapon in former Duke basketball player Greg Paulus.
In other words, if Drew Brees goes down, it’s pretty much over for the Saints.
3. Chicago Bears. Behind Jay Cutler, the Bears have no one. They could have had Marc Bulger, but they have opted to stand pat with Caleb Hanie and rookie Dan LeFevour.
Now that Bulger, whose knowledge of offensive coordinator Mike Martz’s system could have put the former Rams starter in position to bump Cutler to the bench if the team gets off to a slow start, has picked the Ravens, the Bears are free to sign a veteran backup without facing relentless questions regarding the omission of Bulger from the search process.
The only problem? There really aren’t any available veterans who can get the job done if Cutler can’t — or if something on him breaks.
4. Arizona Cardinals. When Kurt Warner retired, the Cardinals faced a tough choice. Stand pat with Matt Leinart or try to upgrade.
They had a shot at Donovan McNabb, but opted not to make a move. Then, Arizona pounced on the underachieving Derek Anderson to be Leinart’s backup, taking it out of the market for Bulger, once he became available.
Despite denials, the Cards had interest in Bulger. But they never, ever would pay him the same $3.8 million that the Ravens offered — especially after paying Anderson.
5. Philadelphia Eagles. As expected, the Eagles have traded Donovan McNabb. As not expected, they’ve kept Mike Vick. And, amazingly, the Wildcat gimmick currently serves as the primary backup to Kevin Kolb.
The Eagles need more protection behind Kolb. They reportedly aren’t interested in Jeff Garcia, but there’s currently no one else out there who can provide the kind of insurance the Eagles need.
The Best
1. Baltimore Ravens. With Bulger on board, the Ravens now have a solid two-deep depth chart at quarterback. If starter Joe Flacco gets injured, Bulger will enjoy something he didn’t have for his last couple of years in St. Louis — an offensive line actually capable of blocking defenders on a consistent basis.
This latest transaction strengthens the Ravens’ chances for 2010, putting them among the best teams in the AFC. And with several other teams in need of a quality backup, they may be able to give Troy Smith his wish and trade him to a new city.
2. Tennessee Titans. Two years ago, Titans starter Vince Young flamed out in Week 1, and Kerry Collins led the team to a 13-3 record. Now, when Collins found himself yanked for Young after a disastrous start to 2009, Young has shown signs of another potential meltdown, and Collins remains in place, mop and bucket at the ready.
Over the long haul, the Titans may need not only a new backup but also a new starter. For now, though, they’ve still got one of the best No. 2’s in the NFL, and they could need him sooner than anyone realizes.
3. Miami Dolphins. When Chad Pennington suffered yet another shoulder injury last year, it appeared his two-year stint with the Dolphins had ended. After all, why would Pennington want to come back once backup Chad Henne has become the starter?
But Pennington opted to return as the No. 2. And that gives the Dolphins plenty of protection in the event Henne gets injured. With Pat White simply not ready to take over (now or possibly ever), keeping Pennington keeps the Fins in play — unless and until he gets hurt again, too.
4. Washington Redskins. Sure, the ‘Skins made a major play by landing Donovan McNabb via trade. But McNabb has missed at least one game in five of the past six seasons.
So the team needs a quality backup. And though some may not think Rex Grossman is a quality backup, consider a few facts: First, he spent a year in the system the Redskins have adopted, with new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan in Houston. Second, Grossman made it to the Super Bowl in Chicago under offensive coordinator Ron Turner, who barely coaxed mediocrity out of Jay Cutler before getting fired after last season. Third, Grossman still possesses a live arm — and the Shanahans know how to refine raw talent.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers. During Ben Roethlisberger’s upcoming suspension, the Steelers will have three good-but-not great quarterbacks available to help move the offense in the right direction. And when he comes back, whoever plays while he’s gone will be even better prepared to back him up.
That is, if Roethlisberger automatically is re-installed as the starter. If he isn’t, then the Steelers automatically have one of the best backup quarterbacks in the history of the league.
Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.
The surprise arrival of Marc Bulger in Baltimore on Wednesday gave the Ravens a new backup quarterback. More importantly, it gave me an idea for a slow-time column topic.
Backup QB Curtis Painter played in two games for the Colts in 2009.
We know that, every year, injuries will happen. We never know exactly when, where, or (most importantly) to whom they’ll occur. When a starting quarterback takes a knee to the head or a head to the midsection, the most popular guy in town suddenly is forced to pull the iPod buds out of his ears and say, "Did somebody call my name?"
So which teams have the worst and best situations at backup quarterback? Let’s take a look.
The Worst
1. Indianapolis Colts. Aside from Peyton Manning, the Colts have four quarterbacks on the roster. And they’d better hope that none of them ever has to take a snap in a game that counts.
Curtis Painter impressed no one during his garbage-time duty in 2009, and no one expects anything from Tom Brandstater, Drew Willy, and Tim Hiller.
So if Peyton goes down, it’s pretty much over in Indy. Instantly.
2. New Orleans Saints. The same can be said in New Orleans. Mark Brunell became a free agent, and he reportedly plans to sign with the Jets in late July. And the backups currently are Chase Daniel, who has never played in a regular-season game, and Sean Canfield.
But they may have a secret weapon in former Duke basketball player Greg Paulus.
In other words, if Drew Brees goes down, it’s pretty much over for the Saints.
3. Chicago Bears. Behind Jay Cutler, the Bears have no one. They could have had Marc Bulger, but they have opted to stand pat with Caleb Hanie and rookie Dan LeFevour.
Now that Bulger, whose knowledge of offensive coordinator Mike Martz’s system could have put the former Rams starter in position to bump Cutler to the bench if the team gets off to a slow start, has picked the Ravens, the Bears are free to sign a veteran backup without facing relentless questions regarding the omission of Bulger from the search process.
The only problem? There really aren’t any available veterans who can get the job done if Cutler can’t — or if something on him breaks.
4. Arizona Cardinals. When Kurt Warner retired, the Cardinals faced a tough choice. Stand pat with Matt Leinart or try to upgrade.
They had a shot at Donovan McNabb, but opted not to make a move. Then, Arizona pounced on the underachieving Derek Anderson to be Leinart’s backup, taking it out of the market for Bulger, once he became available.
Despite denials, the Cards had interest in Bulger. But they never, ever would pay him the same $3.8 million that the Ravens offered — especially after paying Anderson.
5. Philadelphia Eagles. As expected, the Eagles have traded Donovan McNabb. As not expected, they’ve kept Mike Vick. And, amazingly, the Wildcat gimmick currently serves as the primary backup to Kevin Kolb.
The Eagles need more protection behind Kolb. They reportedly aren’t interested in Jeff Garcia, but there’s currently no one else out there who can provide the kind of insurance the Eagles need.
The Best
1. Baltimore Ravens. With Bulger on board, the Ravens now have a solid two-deep depth chart at quarterback. If starter Joe Flacco gets injured, Bulger will enjoy something he didn’t have for his last couple of years in St. Louis — an offensive line actually capable of blocking defenders on a consistent basis.
This latest transaction strengthens the Ravens’ chances for 2010, putting them among the best teams in the AFC. And with several other teams in need of a quality backup, they may be able to give Troy Smith his wish and trade him to a new city.
2. Tennessee Titans. Two years ago, Titans starter Vince Young flamed out in Week 1, and Kerry Collins led the team to a 13-3 record. Now, when Collins found himself yanked for Young after a disastrous start to 2009, Young has shown signs of another potential meltdown, and Collins remains in place, mop and bucket at the ready.
Over the long haul, the Titans may need not only a new backup but also a new starter. For now, though, they’ve still got one of the best No. 2’s in the NFL, and they could need him sooner than anyone realizes.
3. Miami Dolphins. When Chad Pennington suffered yet another shoulder injury last year, it appeared his two-year stint with the Dolphins had ended. After all, why would Pennington want to come back once backup Chad Henne has become the starter?
But Pennington opted to return as the No. 2. And that gives the Dolphins plenty of protection in the event Henne gets injured. With Pat White simply not ready to take over (now or possibly ever), keeping Pennington keeps the Fins in play — unless and until he gets hurt again, too.
4. Washington Redskins. Sure, the ‘Skins made a major play by landing Donovan McNabb via trade. But McNabb has missed at least one game in five of the past six seasons.
So the team needs a quality backup. And though some may not think Rex Grossman is a quality backup, consider a few facts: First, he spent a year in the system the Redskins have adopted, with new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan in Houston. Second, Grossman made it to the Super Bowl in Chicago under offensive coordinator Ron Turner, who barely coaxed mediocrity out of Jay Cutler before getting fired after last season. Third, Grossman still possesses a live arm — and the Shanahans know how to refine raw talent.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers. During Ben Roethlisberger’s upcoming suspension, the Steelers will have three good-but-not great quarterbacks available to help move the offense in the right direction. And when he comes back, whoever plays while he’s gone will be even better prepared to back him up.
That is, if Roethlisberger automatically is re-installed as the starter. If he isn’t, then the Steelers automatically have one of the best backup quarterbacks in the history of the league.
Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.
Operating under the assumption — which may or may not apply in 2010 — that half of the teams that made it to the playoffs in 2009 won’t return at the end of the coming season, I’ve identified the six teams most likely to get back and the six most likely to fail.
The last step? Picking the six teams most likely to get in if, indeed, six teams get tossed.
The addition of Brandon Marshall gives the Dolphins a No. 1 receiver for QB Chad Henne.
If the assumption applies, these six have the best chances of the 20 non-playoff teams from 2009 to qualify again.
Miami Dolphins
If the Patriots and the Jets fall out of the postseason mix, someone has to win the AFC East. So it’ll be the Dolphins or the Bills.
The Bills have done little to improve their team since the 2009 season ended. Though running back C.J. Spiller could make an immediate impact, the Bills need more help than one ball-carrier can provide — especially if they don’t have a quarterback who can take advantage of all the attention Spiller will receive, and if they don’t have the linemen to block for him.
So the Dolphins would be the team to reclaim the division, thanks to the development of quarterback Chad Henne, the arrival of receiver Brandon Marshall and the jolt to the defense provided by new coordinator Mike Nolan.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Over the past decade or so, the Steelers have demonstrated an unusual trend. When expectations are high, they fail to meet them. When expectations are low, they surpass them.
This year, expectations have fallen, thanks to an extremely disappointing 2009 season that made them one of the three AFC teams that failed to get back after qualifying for the postseason in 2008. Coupled with the Ben Roethlisberger fiasco, Pittsburgh fans have prepared themselves even more thoroughly for a disappointing season.
But if the Steelers can weather the first four games of the season (or six if Roethsliberger’s suspension isn’t reduced), re-commit to the running game and keep safety Troy Polamalu healthy, they can get back to the postseason.
Houston Texans
The Texans celebrated their eighth season in the league with their first winning record in franchise history. This year, the next obvious step will be a trip to the postseason.
With the Jaguars and the Titans sliding and four games against the teams of the AFC West, the Texans could fatten up their record for wild-card purposes. The challenge will come from four games against the teams of the NFC East and potentially tough challenges against the Ravens and the Jets.
But with an elite offense and an improving defense, the Texans can get it done. So maybe Year 9 will be the year when it finally happens in Houston.
New York Giants
Three years ago, coach Tom Coughlin found himself on a very hot seat. He delivered in a big way, leading the Giants to a Super Bowl win.
Now, he finds himself again perched over the flames of a near-certain firing if he fails to return to the postseason a year after a 5-0 start disintegrated into a lost season, which triggered an out-of-character eruption from co-owner John Mara.
Coughlin, who’ll turn 64 later this year, has two seasons left on his contract as the Giants try to avoid being overtaken by the other team with which they share a stadium. After 2010, the Giants will have to decide whether to extend Coughlin’s contract or move on.
The Giants have the talent on offense, if the line can stay healthy. Defensively, they need to find a way to replace middle linebacker Antonio Pierce, pump up a deflated pass rush and get safety Kenny Phillips back onto the field.
With some luck and the same kind of urgency that prompted Coughlin to save his job in 2007, the Giants could get back to the playoffs again.
Atlanta Falcons
For the first time in franchise history, the Falcons have put together winning records in consecutive seasons. They’ve got a franchise quarterback, a Hall of Fame tight end and a mission — overcome the Saints.
So with the Saints on an extended victory lap after winning the Super Bowl and the Falcons motivated to continue to climb out of one of the deepest holes into which any franchise ever landed, the NFC South may not continue the trend of the last-place team taking over the division crown, but a repeat division winner is unlikely.
If, again, the recent trend of 50-percent turnover holds.
San Francisco 49ers
The Cardinals have lost Kurt Warner, and they’ve replaced him with Matt Leinart and/or Derek Anderson. The Rams have won six games in three years. The Seahawks seem to have a long way to go to get back to the form that took them to five straight playoff appearances from 2003 through 2008.
And so the 49ers become the most likely team to take over the division. If they could get consistent quarterback play, they could be the next NFC West team to put together five straight playoff appearances.
Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.
Operating under the assumption — which may or may not apply in 2010 — that half of the teams that made it to the playoffs in 2009 won’t return at the end of the coming season, I’ve identified the six teams most likely to get back and the six most likely to fail.
The last step? Picking the six teams most likely to get in if, indeed, six teams get tossed.
The addition of Brandon Marshall gives the Dolphins a No. 1 receiver for QB Chad Henne.
If the assumption applies, these six have the best chances of the 20 non-playoff teams from 2009 to qualify again.
Miami Dolphins
If the Patriots and the Jets fall out of the postseason mix, someone has to win the AFC East. So it’ll be the Dolphins or the Bills.
The Bills have done little to improve their team since the 2009 season ended. Though running back C.J. Spiller could make an immediate impact, the Bills need more help than one ball-carrier can provide — especially if they don’t have a quarterback who can take advantage of all the attention Spiller will receive, and if they don’t have the linemen to block for him.
So the Dolphins would be the team to reclaim the division, thanks to the development of quarterback Chad Henne, the arrival of receiver Brandon Marshall and the jolt to the defense provided by new coordinator Mike Nolan.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Over the past decade or so, the Steelers have demonstrated an unusual trend. When expectations are high, they fail to meet them. When expectations are low, they surpass them.
This year, expectations have fallen, thanks to an extremely disappointing 2009 season that made them one of the three AFC teams that failed to get back after qualifying for the postseason in 2008. Coupled with the Ben Roethlisberger fiasco, Pittsburgh fans have prepared themselves even more thoroughly for a disappointing season.
But if the Steelers can weather the first four games of the season (or six if Roethsliberger’s suspension isn’t reduced), re-commit to the running game and keep safety Troy Polamalu healthy, they can get back to the postseason.
Houston Texans
The Texans celebrated their eighth season in the league with their first winning record in franchise history. This year, the next obvious step will be a trip to the postseason.
With the Jaguars and the Titans sliding and four games against the teams of the AFC West, the Texans could fatten up their record for wild-card purposes. The challenge will come from four games against the teams of the NFC East and potentially tough challenges against the Ravens and the Jets.
But with an elite offense and an improving defense, the Texans can get it done. So maybe Year 9 will be the year when it finally happens in Houston.
New York Giants
Three years ago, coach Tom Coughlin found himself on a very hot seat. He delivered in a big way, leading the Giants to a Super Bowl win.
Now, he finds himself again perched over the flames of a near-certain firing if he fails to return to the postseason a year after a 5-0 start disintegrated into a lost season, which triggered an out-of-character eruption from co-owner John Mara.
Coughlin, who’ll turn 64 later this year, has two seasons left on his contract as the Giants try to avoid being overtaken by the other team with which they share a stadium. After 2010, the Giants will have to decide whether to extend Coughlin’s contract or move on.
The Giants have the talent on offense, if the line can stay healthy. Defensively, they need to find a way to replace middle linebacker Antonio Pierce, pump up a deflated pass rush and get safety Kenny Phillips back onto the field.
With some luck and the same kind of urgency that prompted Coughlin to save his job in 2007, the Giants could get back to the playoffs again.
Atlanta Falcons
For the first time in franchise history, the Falcons have put together winning records in consecutive seasons. They’ve got a franchise quarterback, a Hall of Fame tight end and a mission — overcome the Saints.
So with the Saints on an extended victory lap after winning the Super Bowl and the Falcons motivated to continue to climb out of one of the deepest holes into which any franchise ever landed, the NFC South may not continue the trend of the last-place team taking over the division crown, but a repeat division winner is unlikely.
If, again, the recent trend of 50-percent turnover holds.
San Francisco 49ers
The Cardinals have lost Kurt Warner, and they’ve replaced him with Matt Leinart and/or Derek Anderson. The Rams have won six games in three years. The Seahawks seem to have a long way to go to get back to the form that took them to five straight playoff appearances from 2003 through 2008.
And so the 49ers become the most likely team to take over the division. If they could get consistent quarterback play, they could be the next NFC West team to put together five straight playoff appearances.
Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.
Earlier this week, I assumed that recent history will hold firm in 2010, and that half of the NFL teams that made it to the postseason in 2009 won’t make it back this year.
Given that assumption, I listed the six teams most likely to return. So, for Part 2, let’s look at the six that are the most likely to play no games beyond the final week of the regular season.
Can QB Tom Brady get the Patriots to the postseason in 2010? Mike Florio doesn’t think so.
New York Jets
All-Star teams generate a lot of buzz, but they rarely accomplish anything when it counts.
In New York, the already enhanced expectations from a 9-7 season that ended with a berth to the AFC title game went through the roof of their roofless new stadium via the collection of big-name players like LaDainian Tomlinson, Santonio Holmes, Antonio Cromartie, and Jason Taylor.
Apart from the fact the Jets will be wearing a gigantic bull’s-eye in every game, discontent among players who believe the team promised to "take care" of them could conspire to "take care" of the team’s chances in 2010.
New England Patriots
Yes, the Patriots will be contenders for as long as quarterback Tom Brady and coach Bill Belichick are in New England. But that doesn’t mean they’ll make it to the playoffs every year.
A vague sense has developed that the team’s run of greatness is much closer to the end than to the beginning. Brady has been vocal regarding problems with work ethic and responsiveness to coaching, and his message may not be heeded by teammates given his decision to stay in L.A. for much of the offseason.
While the team has enough talent to excel, the rest of the league has caught up with the Pats — and this could be only the third time since 2001 that they failed to punch through to the playoffs.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals haven’t qualified for the playoffs in two consecutive years since 1981 and 1982. And that was the only time they ever pulled it off.
In 2009, the Bengals caught teams by surprise early, but as the season progressed, the rest of the league figured them out. Cincy limped into the playoffs and then staggered out in round one.
This time around, everyone will be gunning for them — and things won’t come easily. Especially with Carson Palmer’s accuracy disappearing for long stretches during the latter stages of last year’s playoff run.
Philadelphia Eagles
When the Eagles made Kevin Kolb their first draft pick (at the top of round two) in 2007, they laid the foundation for April’s decision to dump long-time starter Donovan McNabb. And while Philly has plenty of faith in Kolb, he’ll soon be facing more scrutiny than he ever could have dreamed.
The offensive line has plenty of question marks, and the defense regressed significantly in the first year of the Sean McDermott era. To succeed, the Eagles need to clamp down on opposing offenses and display patience when in possession of the ball.
It won’t be easy, especially in a division that includes the Cowboys, the Giants, and McNabb.
New Orleans Saints
Yes, the Saints won the Super Bowl. Yes, most of their key players will be back. Yes, quarterback Drew Brees seems to be determined to build upon a burgeoning Hall of Fame legacy.
But the rest of the league will have had months to break down the things the Saints did to put together that historic run, and the fact they played into February — and partied into April — will make it hard to put together another similar performance.
Then there’s the presence of the good-and-improving Falcons, who’ll enter the season with a chip on their shoulders after missing the playoffs despite putting together a winning record.
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona’s prospects plummeted when: 1. Kurt Warner retired; 2. Matt Leinart didn’t; 3. Derek Anderson reported for duty; and 4. the Cardinals didn’t immediately pounce on Marc Bulger the instant he became available.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals allowed linebacker Karlos Dansby to walk away, and they replaced him with an over-the-hill loudmouth whose bark currently is far more potent than his bite. (We’re talking about Joey Porter, for those of you who can’t keep straight the various over-the-hill loudmouths.)
Though the presence of coach Ken Whisenhunt arguably counts for a couple of wins, the absence of a quarterback who can take advantage of receiver Larry Fitzgerald — and the absence of an Anquan Boldin who can take advantage of the attention paid to Fitzgerald — will make if very difficult to win the NFC West for a third straight season.
Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.
Earlier this week, I assumed that recent history will hold firm in 2010, and that half of the NFL teams that made it to the postseason in 2009 won’t make it back this year.
Given that assumption, I listed the six teams most likely to return. So, for Part 2, let’s look at the six that are the most likely to play no games beyond the final week of the regular season.
Can QB Tom Brady get the Patriots to the postseason in 2010? Mike Florio doesn’t think so.
New York Jets
All-Star teams generate a lot of buzz, but they rarely accomplish anything when it counts.
In New York, the already enhanced expectations from a 9-7 season that ended with a berth to the AFC title game went through the roof of their roofless new stadium via the collection of big-name players like LaDainian Tomlinson, Santonio Holmes, Antonio Cromartie, and Jason Taylor.
Apart from the fact the Jets will be wearing a gigantic bull’s-eye in every game, discontent among players who believe the team promised to "take care" of them could conspire to "take care" of the team’s chances in 2010.
New England Patriots
Yes, the Patriots will be contenders for as long as quarterback Tom Brady and coach Bill Belichick are in New England. But that doesn’t mean they’ll make it to the playoffs every year.
A vague sense has developed that the team’s run of greatness is much closer to the end than to the beginning. Brady has been vocal regarding problems with work ethic and responsiveness to coaching, and his message may not be heeded by teammates given his decision to stay in L.A. for much of the offseason.
While the team has enough talent to excel, the rest of the league has caught up with the Pats — and this could be only the third time since 2001 that they failed to punch through to the playoffs.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals haven’t qualified for the playoffs in two consecutive years since 1981 and 1982. And that was the only time they ever pulled it off.
In 2009, the Bengals caught teams by surprise early, but as the season progressed, the rest of the league figured them out. Cincy limped into the playoffs and then staggered out in round one.
This time around, everyone will be gunning for them — and things won’t come easily. Especially with Carson Palmer’s accuracy disappearing for long stretches during the latter stages of last year’s playoff run.
Philadelphia Eagles
When the Eagles made Kevin Kolb their first draft pick (at the top of round two) in 2007, they laid the foundation for April’s decision to dump long-time starter Donovan McNabb. And while Philly has plenty of faith in Kolb, he’ll soon be facing more scrutiny than he ever could have dreamed.
The offensive line has plenty of question marks, and the defense regressed significantly in the first year of the Sean McDermott era. To succeed, the Eagles need to clamp down on opposing offenses and display patience when in possession of the ball.
It won’t be easy, especially in a division that includes the Cowboys, the Giants, and McNabb.
New Orleans Saints
Yes, the Saints won the Super Bowl. Yes, most of their key players will be back. Yes, quarterback Drew Brees seems to be determined to build upon a burgeoning Hall of Fame legacy.
But the rest of the league will have had months to break down the things the Saints did to put together that historic run, and the fact they played into February — and partied into April — will make it hard to put together another similar performance.
Then there’s the presence of the good-and-improving Falcons, who’ll enter the season with a chip on their shoulders after missing the playoffs despite putting together a winning record.
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona’s prospects plummeted when: 1. Kurt Warner retired; 2. Matt Leinart didn’t; 3. Derek Anderson reported for duty; and 4. the Cardinals didn’t immediately pounce on Marc Bulger the instant he became available.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals allowed linebacker Karlos Dansby to walk away, and they replaced him with an over-the-hill loudmouth whose bark currently is far more potent than his bite. (We’re talking about Joey Porter, for those of you who can’t keep straight the various over-the-hill loudmouths.)
Though the presence of coach Ken Whisenhunt arguably counts for a couple of wins, the absence of a quarterback who can take advantage of receiver Larry Fitzgerald — and the absence of an Anquan Boldin who can take advantage of the attention paid to Fitzgerald — will make if very difficult to win the NFC West for a third straight season.
Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.
Every year at this time, the so-called experts begin to map out their predictions for the playoffs. Typically, we pencil in the teams that made it the prior year, nudging out a couple of teams that have lost several key players and penciling in a couple of teams perceived to be on the rise.
Can Philip Rivers finally get the Chargers to the Super Bowl this year?
Reality paints a far different picture. Historically, the turnover rate hovers in the neighborhood of 50 percent, with half of the 12-team field getting bounced in favor of teams that didn’t make it to the most recent tournament.
The challenge comes from trying to figure out the six of the dozen that won’t make it back — and the six of the 20 non-playoff teams who’ll crash the party.
So in Part 1 of what has become an annual slow-period series, let’s consider the six 2009 playoff teams most likely to get back next year, if we assume that six of them won’t. Part 2: Six teams that won’t return to the playoffs.
Baltimore Ravens
Quietly, the Ravens have built a solid contender in only two years of the John Harbaugh regime. This year, they’ve beefed up the roster with the addition of receiver Anquan Boldin, linebacker Sergio Kindle, and defensive tackle Terrence Cody. Meanwhile, quarterback Joe Flacco continues to develop, and running back Ray Rice has his sights set on a 2,000-yard rushing-and-receiving season.
With plenty of talented veterans still patrolling the defensive side of the ball and one of the best young offensive lines in the game, the Ravens have laid the foundation for a perennial powerhouse.
The key to the Ravens winning a Super Bowl will be winning their division. In 2008 and 2009, the Ravens went 0-5 against teams that captured the AFC North crown. If they can take care of business against the Steelers, Bengals, and Browns, the Ravens could finally play a playoff game or two at home, and maybe earn a bye.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts will be projected to make it to the playoffs for as long as quarterback Peyton Manning remains at the helm of the offense. Though last year’s change at the head-coaching position required a major adjustment, the dramatically reduced role of Tom Moore, the only offensive coordinator Manning has known, will raise the challenge to a new level this year.
Manning will, as always, be up to it.
And with a defense that can stifle ball carriers even with Bob Sanders in street clothes, the Colts will be poised to once again capture the AFC South, and to play deep into January.
San Diego Chargers
Despite contract disputes with left tackle Marcus McNeill, receiver Vincent Jackson, and linebacker Shawne Merriman, the Chargers continue to occupy the mantle of a contender, primarily since they have charter membership in one of the weakest divisions in football.
Though quarterback Philip Rivers has yet to add postseason success to his regular-season prowess, he gives the Chargers an annual chance to contend.
So while it’s hardly automatic that they’ll win in January, they should do enough from September to December to get them back to games that matter most, especially with the Broncos, Chiefs, and Raiders serving as their primary competition.
Dallas Cowboys
The NFC East has a quartet of evenly-matched teams. Last year, for example, the Cowboys won the division even though the Giants, who didn’t qualify for the playoffs, swept them.
This year, each franchise has question marks. Of the four, the Cowboys have the fewest.
Then there’s the fact the Cowboys host the Super Bowl. That may not be enough of a carrot to get them to the game, but it should at least get them past the first major cut.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings land on this list based on one major assumption: that quarterback Brett Favre will return. If he doesn’t, the Vikings don’t have the horses to get to the postseason with Tarvaris Jackson, Sage Rosenfels, and/or Joe Webb at quarterback.
If Favre returns — and stays as healthy as he has been during 19 prior seasons — the Vikings will have a great shot at getting back into the postseason.
The defense continues to be strong, though not as dominant as in recent years, and the offensive line has enough pop left to keep Favre in one piece and to open holes for Adrian Peterson and an underrated group of understudies.
Though they could be setting themselves and their fans up for another postseason disappointment, look for the Vikings to be in the mix once again for a chance to change that 0-4 record in the game that counts second-most to 1-4.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers have become a trendy pick to make it to the Super Bowl and win it in the third year of life without Favre. Though it’s way too early to project the Pack for a trip to Dallas in February, they’ve got a great chance at getting back into the playoffs, either as a wild-card or by taking the division title away from the Vikings.
Like each of the other five teams on this list, the Packers enjoy solid and consistent quarterback play. The receivers make Aaron Rodgers look even better, and the offensive line would look better if Rodgers improves on getting rid of the ball.
The defense will need to remain strong in the second season of the 3-4 under Dom Capers, and a more effective running game could come in handy. But it all should add up to get the Packers’ ticket punched for another playoff appearance.
And, yes, Who Dat nation, I’ve arrived at the end of my list and omitted the Saints. This means that they’ll be on the list of the six teams most likely to get bounced.
Again, this process presumes that six teams who made it last year won’t make it back. The trend could be bucked in 2010, and more than three of the 2009 NFC playoff teams could return. Or it could be like 2008, when only one of the five NFC playoff teams from the prior year (the Giants) made it back again.
Either way, Part 2 and Part 3 of this series will make it back again soon.
Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.
Every year at this time, the so-called experts begin to map out their predictions for the playoffs. Typically, we pencil in the teams that made it the prior year, nudging out a couple of teams that have lost several key players and penciling in a couple of teams perceived to be on the rise.
Can Philip Rivers finally get the Chargers to the Super Bowl this year?
Reality paints a far different picture. Historically, the turnover rate hovers in the neighborhood of 50 percent, with half of the 12-team field getting bounced in favor of teams that didn’t make it to the most recent tournament.
The challenge comes from trying to figure out the six of the dozen that won’t make it back — and the six of the 20 non-playoff teams who’ll crash the party.
So in Part 1 of what has become an annual slow-period series, let’s consider the six 2009 playoff teams most likely to get back next year, if we assume that six of them won’t. Part 2: Six teams that won’t return to the playoffs.
Baltimore Ravens
Quietly, the Ravens have built a solid contender in only two years of the John Harbaugh regime. This year, they’ve beefed up the roster with the addition of receiver Anquan Boldin, linebacker Sergio Kindle, and defensive tackle Terrence Cody. Meanwhile, quarterback Joe Flacco continues to develop, and running back Ray Rice has his sights set on a 2,000-yard rushing-and-receiving season.
With plenty of talented veterans still patrolling the defensive side of the ball and one of the best young offensive lines in the game, the Ravens have laid the foundation for a perennial powerhouse.
The key to the Ravens winning a Super Bowl will be winning their division. In 2008 and 2009, the Ravens went 0-5 against teams that captured the AFC North crown. If they can take care of business against the Steelers, Bengals, and Browns, the Ravens could finally play a playoff game or two at home, and maybe earn a bye.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts will be projected to make it to the playoffs for as long as quarterback Peyton Manning remains at the helm of the offense. Though last year’s change at the head-coaching position required a major adjustment, the dramatically reduced role of Tom Moore, the only offensive coordinator Manning has known, will raise the challenge to a new level this year.
Manning will, as always, be up to it.
And with a defense that can stifle ball carriers even with Bob Sanders in street clothes, the Colts will be poised to once again capture the AFC South, and to play deep into January.
San Diego Chargers
Despite contract disputes with left tackle Marcus McNeill, receiver Vincent Jackson, and linebacker Shawne Merriman, the Chargers continue to occupy the mantle of a contender, primarily since they have charter membership in one of the weakest divisions in football.
Though quarterback Philip Rivers has yet to add postseason success to his regular-season prowess, he gives the Chargers an annual chance to contend.
So while it’s hardly automatic that they’ll win in January, they should do enough from September to December to get them back to games that matter most, especially with the Broncos, Chiefs, and Raiders serving as their primary competition.
Dallas Cowboys
The NFC East has a quartet of evenly-matched teams. Last year, for example, the Cowboys won the division even though the Giants, who didn’t qualify for the playoffs, swept them.
This year, each franchise has question marks. Of the four, the Cowboys have the fewest.
Then there’s the fact the Cowboys host the Super Bowl. That may not be enough of a carrot to get them to the game, but it should at least get them past the first major cut.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings land on this list based on one major assumption: that quarterback Brett Favre will return. If he doesn’t, the Vikings don’t have the horses to get to the postseason with Tarvaris Jackson, Sage Rosenfels, and/or Joe Webb at quarterback.
If Favre returns — and stays as healthy as he has been during 19 prior seasons — the Vikings will have a great shot at getting back into the postseason.
The defense continues to be strong, though not as dominant as in recent years, and the offensive line has enough pop left to keep Favre in one piece and to open holes for Adrian Peterson and an underrated group of understudies.
Though they could be setting themselves and their fans up for another postseason disappointment, look for the Vikings to be in the mix once again for a chance to change that 0-4 record in the game that counts second-most to 1-4.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers have become a trendy pick to make it to the Super Bowl and win it in the third year of life without Favre. Though it’s way too early to project the Pack for a trip to Dallas in February, they’ve got a great chance at getting back into the playoffs, either as a wild-card or by taking the division title away from the Vikings.
Like each of the other five teams on this list, the Packers enjoy solid and consistent quarterback play. The receivers make Aaron Rodgers look even better, and the offensive line would look better if Rodgers improves on getting rid of the ball.
The defense will need to remain strong in the second season of the 3-4 under Dom Capers, and a more effective running game could come in handy. But it all should add up to get the Packers’ ticket punched for another playoff appearance.
And, yes, Who Dat nation, I’ve arrived at the end of my list and omitted the Saints. This means that they’ll be on the list of the six teams most likely to get bounced.
Again, this process presumes that six teams who made it last year won’t make it back. The trend could be bucked in 2010, and more than three of the 2009 NFC playoff teams could return. Or it could be like 2008, when only one of the five NFC playoff teams from the prior year (the Giants) made it back again.
Either way, Part 2 and Part 3 of this series will make it back again soon.
Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.
This Sept. 17, 2005, file photo shows former USC coach Pete Carroll celebrating with Reggie Bush after Bush scored against Arkansas.
Now that the issue of rules violations at Southern California has burst open like the proverbial Trojan horse, overshadowing the legacy of coach Pete Carroll and a litany of wins during one of the most memorable eras for any collegiate program, the two main culprits — Carroll and former USC running back Reggie Bush — remain at a safe distance, each boasting a 2010 W-2 that will be in the neighborhood of $8 million.
For both men, fairness dictates that a consequence apply. Some would say Bush’s lackluster NFL career already constitutes consequence enough. He hasn’t been, isn’t and will never be Gale Sayers. Then again, as Brian Urlacher would surely point out, Bush owns one thing Sayers never will — an NFL championship.
But while no one connected to college football can take away the team success Bush has enjoyed at the NFL level (even if he contributed far less to the outcome than his pay grade suggests), the folks at the Heisman Trust immediately should strip Bush of the 2005 edition of the award. Though many will argue that too much time has passed to justify retroactively taking away one of the greatest individual honors in all of team sports, the notion of getting it right should know no temporal limits.
Indeed, the plain text mission statement found at the Heisman Trophy Trust’s website compels swift, decisive action:
"The Heisman Memorial Trophy annually recognizes the outstanding college football player whose performance best exhibits the pursuit of excellence with integrity. Winners epitomize great ability combined with diligence, perseverance, and hard work. The Heisman Trophy Trust ensures the continuation and integrity of this award. The Trust, furthermore, has a charitable mission to support amateur athletics and to provide greater opportunities to the youth of our country."
To the extent that the NCAA found Bush cheated by getting paid while still eligible to play college football, Bush’s 2005 season did not reflect the "pursuit of excellence with integrity." To the extent that Heisman Trust supports "amateur athletics," Bush did not deserve the honor because he no longer was an amateur.
And while some may respond to this by pointing out that many college football players get paid while otherwise still amateurs, few cases have involved such obvious and brazen cash-and-things-of-value grabs. Since the NCAA can do nothing to Bush beyond telling Southern Cal to no longer let him come around the school or the team, the Heisman Trust can instruct Bush to pack up the most famous football sculpture and send it to former Texas quarterback Vince Young.
In this regard, some may argue the vote should be redone. But the Associated Press learned the hard way last month the perils of a balloting Mulligan, when former Southern Cal linebacker Brian Cushing won the 2009 Defensive Player of the Year award for the second time. Given that Bush outpaced Young, who more than doubled the point total generated by former USC Matt Leinart, who grossly outdistanced a field including Brady Quinn, Michael Robinson, A.J. Hawk, DeAngelo Williams, Drew Olson, Jerome Harrison, and Elvis Dumveril, the obvious alternate recipient becomes Young.
"I’m just disappointed for my fans, especially my teammates, my family back at home, just not representing them in the right way," Young said after losing the award to Bush. "I’m just basically emotionally upset about that."
If the folks at the Heisman Trust have any sense of fairness and decency, Young will be emotionally overjoyed, sooner rather than later.
As to Carroll, he should lose his current job. Of course, he won’t; Seattle Seahawks president Tod Leiweke hired Carroll at a time when Leiweke knew or with the exercise of due diligence should have known that Carroll presided over a program poised to be slapped silly by the NCAA. And if the Seahawks had no qualms about it then, they should have none now.
Still, as a practical matter Carroll’s grace period just shrank. Whatever "plan" previously applied to him — five years, three years, two — the window necessarily shrank, because Carroll’s collegiate career lost much of its luster.
And Carroll can disagree all he wants with the findings or the outcome, blaming everyone and anyone but himself for the damage done to the Trojans program. Folks who get it know that Carroll’s hands carry a thick veneer of grime. And they in turn recognize that justice won’t truly be served until the only coaching Carroll ever does entails holding an Xbox controller.
Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.
This Sept. 17, 2005, file photo shows former USC coach Pete Carroll celebrating with Reggie Bush after Bush scored against Arkansas.
Now that the issue of rules violations at Southern California has burst open like the proverbial Trojan horse, overshadowing the legacy of coach Pete Carroll and a litany of wins during one of the most memorable eras for any collegiate program, the two main culprits — Carroll and former USC running back Reggie Bush — remain at a safe distance, each boasting a 2010 W-2 that will be in the neighborhood of $8 million.
For both men, fairness dictates that a consequence apply. Some would say Bush’s lackluster NFL career already constitutes consequence enough. He hasn’t been, isn’t and will never be Gale Sayers. Then again, as Brian Urlacher would surely point out, Bush owns one thing Sayers never will — an NFL championship.
But while no one connected to college football can take away the team success Bush has enjoyed at the NFL level (even if he contributed far less to the outcome than his pay grade suggests), the folks at the Heisman Trust immediately should strip Bush of the 2005 edition of the award. Though many will argue that too much time has passed to justify retroactively taking away one of the greatest individual honors in all of team sports, the notion of getting it right should know no temporal limits.
Indeed, the plain text mission statement found at the Heisman Trophy Trust’s website compels swift, decisive action:
"The Heisman Memorial Trophy annually recognizes the outstanding college football player whose performance best exhibits the pursuit of excellence with integrity. Winners epitomize great ability combined with diligence, perseverance, and hard work. The Heisman Trophy Trust ensures the continuation and integrity of this award. The Trust, furthermore, has a charitable mission to support amateur athletics and to provide greater opportunities to the youth of our country."
To the extent that the NCAA found Bush cheated by getting paid while still eligible to play college football, Bush’s 2005 season did not reflect the "pursuit of excellence with integrity." To the extent that Heisman Trust supports "amateur athletics," Bush did not deserve the honor because he no longer was an amateur.
And while some may respond to this by pointing out that many college football players get paid while otherwise still amateurs, few cases have involved such obvious and brazen cash-and-things-of-value grabs. Since the NCAA can do nothing to Bush beyond telling Southern Cal to no longer let him come around the school or the team, the Heisman Trust can instruct Bush to pack up the most famous football sculpture and send it to former Texas quarterback Vince Young.
In this regard, some may argue the vote should be redone. But the Associated Press learned the hard way last month the perils of a balloting Mulligan, when former Southern Cal linebacker Brian Cushing won the 2009 Defensive Player of the Year award for the second time. Given that Bush outpaced Young, who more than doubled the point total generated by former USC Matt Leinart, who grossly outdistanced a field including Brady Quinn, Michael Robinson, A.J. Hawk, DeAngelo Williams, Drew Olson, Jerome Harrison, and Elvis Dumveril, the obvious alternate recipient becomes Young.
"I’m just disappointed for my fans, especially my teammates, my family back at home, just not representing them in the right way," Young said after losing the award to Bush. "I’m just basically emotionally upset about that."
If the folks at the Heisman Trust have any sense of fairness and decency, Young will be emotionally overjoyed, sooner rather than later.
As to Carroll, he should lose his current job. Of course, he won’t; Seattle Seahawks president Tod Leiweke hired Carroll at a time when Leiweke knew or with the exercise of due diligence should have known that Carroll presided over a program poised to be slapped silly by the NCAA. And if the Seahawks had no qualms about it then, they should have none now.
Still, as a practical matter Carroll’s grace period just shrank. Whatever "plan" previously applied to him — five years, three years, two — the window necessarily shrank, because Carroll’s collegiate career lost much of its luster.
And Carroll can disagree all he wants with the findings or the outcome, blaming everyone and anyone but himself for the damage done to the Trojans program. Folks who get it know that Carroll’s hands carry a thick veneer of grime. And they in turn recognize that justice won’t truly be served until the only coaching Carroll ever does entails holding an Xbox controller.
Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.
As if we didn’t have enough off-field contractual intrigue to track over the next year, two of the best quarterbacks in the game will give us even more.
Like the Patriots’ Tom Brady, Colts QB Peyton Manning enters the final year of his contract.
This season, both Tom Brady of the Patriots and Peyton Manning of the Colts enter the final year of their contracts. Currently, a deal for neither player seems to be close.
As to Brady, a recent report from Michael Silver of Yahoo! Sports suggests a "growing disconnect" between player and team, based on the lack of progress in contract talks and Brady’s decision to make only cameo appearances in Foxborough during the current offseason. As to Manning, owner Jim Irsay vowed in February that a record deal would be coming. Recent comments from team president Bill Polian suggest the Colts would like to wait until the contours of the next labor deal become more clear.
Here’s the problem. Once Manning and Brady finish the final year of their respective commitment, they’ll have more leverage, since they’ll be poised to hit the market without taking on any further injury risk. And while the franchise tag probably will be available, why wouldn’t a team that needs a quarterback be willing to hand over two first-round draft picks, especially when using one of them on the most important position in the sport constitutes a coin-flip proposition?
Sure, the Pats and Colts would have the right to match any offers made to and accepted by their franchise quarterbacks, but unless the new labor deal wipes out the poison-pill maneuver, the quarterbacks could receive offers that can’t be matched.
And even if the new labor situation deep sixes the poison-pill power-play, which if done properly forces the player’s original team to guarantee the full amount of an otherwise partially guaranteed deal, a different team may be willing to pay Brady or Manning far more money than the Patriots or the Colts, respectively, will pay to keep them.
While the Colts likely will pay whatever it takes to keep Manning in a horseshoed helmet until he retires (and they’d likely use the exclusive version of the franchise tag to keep him from getting away), the Patriots may not break the bank for Brady.
Let’s rewind to 2001. The Pats embraced the ability to replace a face-of-the-franchise quarterback who had become bigger than the team with a no-name sixth-round pick who happily accepted his role and aspired only to get better at it. A Super Bowl win made the transition from Drew Bledsoe to Brady even easier.
Nine years later, Brady has become bigger than Bledsoe ever was. Three Super Bowl wins. The greatest single season by any quarterback — if not any player — in NFL history. A supermodel wife who makes more money than him. And a hankering for living in Los Angeles that keeps him from fully committing to the team during the underrated weeks in which plans for the coming season are made.
Combined with the fact that Brady no longer appears to be interested in giving the team a hometown discount, it wouldn’t be a shock if coach Bill Belichick decides just as there’s no "I" in "team," there’s no longer any "team" in Brady.
That’s not to say the Patriots would ever slam the door on the future first-ballot Hall of Famer. Instead, they’d apply the non-exclusive version of the franchise tag, try to work out a new contract, and wait/hope for another team to make a ridiculous offer, collecting two first-round draft picks in the process.
The transaction would give the Patriots a trio of first-round picks in 2011, and two in 2012.
So where would Brady go? In that regard, a third still-elite quarterback who’s due to become a free agent in 2011 could play a major role. Though many believe Brady would make a beeline for the Bay Area, joining the 49ers team for which he grew up rooting, the Vikings may decide to make a play for Brady in lieu of laying lips for a third straight year on the buttocks of Brett Favre. And Brady could be intrigued by signing up with a team that could soon be headed for L.A., especially given that they’d be one of the few franchises with widespread strengths at positions other than quarterback.
In the end, both Manning and Brady will be looking to grab top dollar. Manning always has done it, and Brady now seems to be ready to give it a try, if for no reason other than to close the gap with the spouse.
Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.
As if we didn’t have enough off-field contractual intrigue to track over the next year, two of the best quarterbacks in the game will give us even more.
Like the Patriots’ Tom Brady, Colts QB Peyton Manning enters the final year of his contract.
This season, both Tom Brady of the Patriots and Peyton Manning of the Colts enter the final year of their contracts. Currently, a deal for neither player seems to be close.
As to Brady, a recent report from Michael Silver of Yahoo! Sports suggests a "growing disconnect" between player and team, based on the lack of progress in contract talks and Brady’s decision to make only cameo appearances in Foxborough during the current offseason. As to Manning, owner Jim Irsay vowed in February that a record deal would be coming. Recent comments from team president Bill Polian suggest the Colts would like to wait until the contours of the next labor deal become more clear.
Here’s the problem. Once Manning and Brady finish the final year of their respective commitment, they’ll have more leverage, since they’ll be poised to hit the market without taking on any further injury risk. And while the franchise tag probably will be available, why wouldn’t a team that needs a quarterback be willing to hand over two first-round draft picks, especially when using one of them on the most important position in the sport constitutes a coin-flip proposition?
Sure, the Pats and Colts would have the right to match any offers made to and accepted by their franchise quarterbacks, but unless the new labor deal wipes out the poison-pill maneuver, the quarterbacks could receive offers that can’t be matched.
And even if the new labor situation deep sixes the poison-pill power-play, which if done properly forces the player’s original team to guarantee the full amount of an otherwise partially guaranteed deal, a different team may be willing to pay Brady or Manning far more money than the Patriots or the Colts, respectively, will pay to keep them.
While the Colts likely will pay whatever it takes to keep Manning in a horseshoed helmet until he retires (and they’d likely use the exclusive version of the franchise tag to keep him from getting away), the Patriots may not break the bank for Brady.
Let’s rewind to 2001. The Pats embraced the ability to replace a face-of-the-franchise quarterback who had become bigger than the team with a no-name sixth-round pick who happily accepted his role and aspired only to get better at it. A Super Bowl win made the transition from Drew Bledsoe to Brady even easier.
Nine years later, Brady has become bigger than Bledsoe ever was. Three Super Bowl wins. The greatest single season by any quarterback — if not any player — in NFL history. A supermodel wife who makes more money than him. And a hankering for living in Los Angeles that keeps him from fully committing to the team during the underrated weeks in which plans for the coming season are made.
Combined with the fact that Brady no longer appears to be interested in giving the team a hometown discount, it wouldn’t be a shock if coach Bill Belichick decides just as there’s no "I" in "team," there’s no longer any "team" in Brady.
That’s not to say the Patriots would ever slam the door on the future first-ballot Hall of Famer. Instead, they’d apply the non-exclusive version of the franchise tag, try to work out a new contract, and wait/hope for another team to make a ridiculous offer, collecting two first-round draft picks in the process.
The transaction would give the Patriots a trio of first-round picks in 2011, and two in 2012.
So where would Brady go? In that regard, a third still-elite quarterback who’s due to become a free agent in 2011 could play a major role. Though many believe Brady would make a beeline for the Bay Area, joining the 49ers team for which he grew up rooting, the Vikings may decide to make a play for Brady in lieu of laying lips for a third straight year on the buttocks of Brett Favre. And Brady could be intrigued by signing up with a team that could soon be headed for L.A., especially given that they’d be one of the few franchises with widespread strengths at positions other than quarterback.
In the end, both Manning and Brady will be looking to grab top dollar. Manning always has done it, and Brady now seems to be ready to give it a try, if for no reason other than to close the gap with the spouse.
Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.
