Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers
When searching for breakout pitchers, look to the fringes. No, we’re not talking about fifth starters like Todd Wellemeyer, although he has his usefulness. By fringes, we mean examining non-traditional stats. So instead of focusing on Clayton Kershaw’s 8-8 record from a year ago concentrate on other indicators.
Kershaw was seventh in ratio of strikeouts per nine innings with 9.74 last season. That put him ahead of Zack Greinke (9.50) but behind Tim Lincecum, the leader in the category at 10.42. Still, that’s pretty good company for Mr. Kershaw, being mentioned in the same paragraph as 2009’s Cy Young winners.
Kershaw was just outside the top 10 in batting average on balls in play at .274, placing right behind Chris Carpenter. And Kershaw’s fielding independent pitching number of 3.08 put him in the top eight, sandwiched between Josh Johnson and Felix Hernandez.
So assuming Kershaw pitches like he did last year, significant improvement on that 8-8 record is forthcoming. You don’t want to miss out on that jump when it happens, so look for Kershaw as your No. 2 fantasy pitcher. He just might turn out to be your ace.
Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers
When searching for breakout pitchers, look to the fringes. No, we’re not talking about fifth starters like Todd Wellemeyer, although he has his usefulness. By fringes, we mean examining non-traditional stats. So instead of focusing on Clayton Kershaw’s 8-8 record from a year ago concentrate on other indicators.
Kershaw was seventh in ratio of strikeouts per nine innings with 9.74 last season. That put him ahead of Zack Greinke (9.50) but behind Tim Lincecum, the leader in the category at 10.42. Still, that’s pretty good company for Mr. Kershaw, being mentioned in the same paragraph as 2009’s Cy Young winners.
Kershaw was just outside the top 10 in batting average on balls in play at .274, placing right behind Chris Carpenter. And Kershaw’s fielding independent pitching number of 3.08 put him in the top eight, sandwiched between Josh Johnson and Felix Hernandez.
So assuming Kershaw pitches like he did last year, significant improvement on that 8-8 record is forthcoming. You don’t want to miss out on that jump when it happens, so look for Kershaw as your No. 2 fantasy pitcher. He just might turn out to be your ace.
Chris Perez, RP, Indians
At one time Chris Perez was the Cardinals’ closer-in-waiting, but at midseason in 2009 St. Louis traded him to Cleveland for Mark DeRosa during a playoff push. Now, with Kerry Wood out 6-8 weeks because of a strained muscle beneath his pitching shoulder, Perez finally gets his chance as a big-league closer.
Perez has a career K/9 ratio of 10.7 that along with a 1.19 WHIP could indicate future success as a closer. Perez’s WHIP was even better than that (1.08) after the trade to Cleveland last year. Wood’s history of arm injuries might make him slow to recover, so Perez could be Cleveland’s closer well into May.
What’s that worth in your fantasy draft? Look at Perez as a possible third closer in standard mixed leagues. Getting quality innings from him early in the season is just the boost owners who wait to draft closers need. However, should Perez falter (he is only 24 after all) keep Jensen Lewis and prospect Josh Judy in mind. They are expected to be next in line in Cleveland.
Chris Perez, RP, Indians
At one time Chris Perez was the Cardinals’ closer-in-waiting, but at midseason in 2009 St. Louis traded him to Cleveland for Mark DeRosa during a playoff push. Now, with Kerry Wood out 6-8 weeks because of a strained muscle beneath his pitching shoulder, Perez finally gets his chance as a big-league closer.
Perez has a career K/9 ratio of 10.7 that along with a 1.19 WHIP could indicate future success as a closer. Perez’s WHIP was even better than that (1.08) after the trade to Cleveland last year. Wood’s history of arm injuries might make him slow to recover, so Perez could be Cleveland’s closer well into May.
What’s that worth in your fantasy draft? Look at Perez as a possible third closer in standard mixed leagues. Getting quality innings from him early in the season is just the boost owners who wait to draft closers need. However, should Perez falter (he is only 24 after all) keep Jensen Lewis and prospect Josh Judy in mind. They are expected to be next in line in Cleveland.
Joey Votto, 1B, Reds
Joey Votto is quickly moving up draft boards this spring as fantasy owners see a potential first-round talent that can be drafted in the third round. To show you the progression, it wasn’t long ago that Votto could have been selected in the fourth or fifth rounds. And it wouldn’t be surprising to see him sneak into the second round as we get closer to opening day.
What’s all the fuss? The stat that really stands out with Votto is his OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) from last season. Among qualified batters, Votto ranked fourth in that category with a .981 rating. That put him behind only Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Joe Mauer, and all three of them are projected to be first-round picks in standard fantasy leagues.
Votto will turn 27 later this season, so he’s considered to be in the prime of his playing career. And if he continues to make progress like he did in his first two seasons, Votto could join that elite first-round group as early as this year.
It’s important to note that Votto missed significant time last season while dealing with an anxiety-related issue. He says that’s an ongoing battle and announced that he has been making progress. Provided he keeps winning that fight, the sky is the limit for Votto’s fantasy value.
Joey Votto, 1B, Reds
Joey Votto is quickly moving up draft boards this spring as fantasy owners see a potential first-round talent that can be drafted in the third round. To show you the progression, it wasn’t long ago that Votto could have been selected in the fourth or fifth rounds. And it wouldn’t be surprising to see him sneak into the second round as we get closer to opening day.
What’s all the fuss? The stat that really stands out with Votto is his OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) from last season. Among qualified batters, Votto ranked fourth in that category with a .981 rating. That put him behind only Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Joe Mauer, and all three of them are projected to be first-round picks in standard fantasy leagues.
Votto will turn 27 later this season, so he’s considered to be in the prime of his playing career. And if he continues to make progress like he did in his first two seasons, Votto could join that elite first-round group as early as this year.
It’s important to note that Votto missed significant time last season while dealing with an anxiety-related issue. He says that’s an ongoing battle and announced that he has been making progress. Provided he keeps winning that fight, the sky is the limit for Votto’s fantasy value.
Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies
Colorado shortstop Troy Tulowitzki will likely be a pivotal player for fantasy owners who draft him in the second round this year. Looking at last season’s stats when Tulowitzki hit .297 with 32 home runs, 101 runs scored, 92 RBIs and 20 steals might make it seem like a no-brainer. However, despite excelling in 2009 and 2007, Tulowitzki’s down ’08 leaves a shadow of a doubt pertaining to his 2010 potential.
In ’08, he hit just .263 with eight homers, 46 RBIs, 48 runs and one stolen base. But he missed most of the first half of that season with a quadriceps injury and then suffered a hand laceration. Provided he’s healthy this year, Tulowitzki shouldn’t have a problem duplicating last year’s average and run production.
But can he repeat those 20 steals? That’s the final piece of the puzzle that made Tulowitzki an elite fantasy player last year. And, yes, it is the biggest question mark given that he was caught 11 times in ’09 and didn’t have a reputation of being speedy in the minors. If Tulowitzki manages to produce double-digit steals to go along with his power he’ll be well on his way to becoming the second-most valuable player (behind Hanley Ramirez) at a position that isn’t very deep this year.
Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies
Colorado shortstop Troy Tulowitzki will likely be a pivotal player for fantasy owners who draft him in the second round this year. Looking at last season’s stats when Tulowitzki hit .297 with 32 home runs, 101 runs scored, 92 RBIs and 20 steals might make it seem like a no-brainer. However, despite excelling in 2009 and 2007, Tulowitzki’s down ’08 leaves a shadow of a doubt pertaining to his 2010 potential.
In ’08, he hit just .263 with eight homers, 46 RBIs, 48 runs and one stolen base. But he missed most of the first half of that season with a quadriceps injury and then suffered a hand laceration. Provided he’s healthy this year, Tulowitzki shouldn’t have a problem duplicating last year’s average and run production.
But can he repeat those 20 steals? That’s the final piece of the puzzle that made Tulowitzki an elite fantasy player last year. And, yes, it is the biggest question mark given that he was caught 11 times in ’09 and didn’t have a reputation of being speedy in the minors. If Tulowitzki manages to produce double-digit steals to go along with his power he’ll be well on his way to becoming the second-most valuable player (behind Hanley Ramirez) at a position that isn’t very deep this year.
Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers
Ryan Braun is Sporting News’ No. 1-ranked fantasy outfielder entering the 2010 season, but after Braun, owners can make strong arguments for a few different players to fill second place. Kemp is one of those players, and judging by the way he is climbing in preseason mock drafts, he could eventually claim the No. 2 spot all by himself.
Why are fantasy owners enamored with Kemp? For Rotisserie leaguers Kemp’s across-the-board production is unique and valuable. Among players that stole 30-plus bases last season, only Kemp and Bobby Abreu had 100 RBIs. Kemp also chipped in with 26 home runs, 101 RBIs and a .297 batting average.
Kemp has shown a nice upward trend over the last three seasons in his key fantasy stats. And at 25 years old, he is entering the prime of his career. It’s no wonder he’s the "Fantasy Player of the Week" and a sure bet to be one of the first outfielders drafted this spring.
Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers
Ryan Braun is Sporting News’ No. 1-ranked fantasy outfielder entering the 2010 season, but after Braun, owners can make strong arguments for a few different players to fill second place. Kemp is one of those players, and judging by the way he is climbing in preseason mock drafts, he could eventually claim the No. 2 spot all by himself.
Why are fantasy owners enamored with Kemp? For Rotisserie leaguers Kemp’s across-the-board production is unique and valuable. Among players that stole 30-plus bases last season, only Kemp and Bobby Abreu had 100 RBIs. Kemp also chipped in with 26 home runs, 101 RBIs and a .297 batting average.
Kemp has shown a nice upward trend over the last three seasons in his key fantasy stats. And at 25 years old, he is entering the prime of his career. It’s no wonder he’s the "Fantasy Player of the Week" and a sure bet to be one of the first outfielders drafted this spring.
Ty Cobb facing Sandy Koufax. Babe Ruth standing in against Bob Gibson. These great matchups have come to life with the All-Time Greats version of Strat-O-Matic. Now Strat-O-Matic has taken it to the next level, adding over 100 Negro Leaguers to create a deeper player pool and allowing us to truly get a glimpse of what the best players across the history of the game can do.
For those who don’t know what I’m talking about, Strat-O-Matic is a dice game that simulates baseball right down to every at-bat. Players are all represented by cards with their outcomes weighted based on their actual abilities. The result is one of the most accurate baseball simulations around. (For more on Strat-O-Matic, check out this piece.)
With the addition of the Negro League card set to the Strat-O-Matic All-Time Greats card set, we get to dream a little broader. Josh Gibson will face Walter Johnson, Babe Ruth will go up against Satchel Paige. But while it’s fun to talk about, the true joy is actually seeing things in action. You have the cards, and you have their backgrounds. With what you know so far, who would you take, given the opportunity?
We’ve got three matchups here to whet your appetite. You’re on the clock Mr. General Manager. Who is your selection?
Josh Gibson vs. Babe Ruth
Here we have the matchup that is already hotly debated, even though the two wouldn’t have actually played much in the same era. The most feared home run hitter of all-time in the Major Leagues or the most feared home run hitter of all-time in the Negro Leagues. So, if you’re starting your team tomorrow, who do you pick?
Whether Gibson’s power was equal to Ruth’s, the fact remains he was close. Against lefties, Gibson had no equal. Strat-O-Matic creator Hal Richman said he would never have a lefty pitcher face Gibson, not even if his name were Lefty Grove.
And Gibson is a catcher; that can’t be understated. As good as Ruth was as a hitter, baseball history is filled with amazing outfielders. The difference between Ruth and the next best left fielder is great, but not as great as Gibson and the next catchers. Would you rather have Josh Gibson and Ted Williams or Babe Ruth and Mike Piazza? There are other players eligible to play catcher, like Lou Boudreau, but those guys aren’t good catchers.
There are good hitters who can play catcher. Piazza is a great hitter who is a poor defensive backstop. Gibson isn’t Johnny Bench defensively, but he’s perfectly acceptable given his incredible bat and above-average arm.
Ruth’s competition in left field is not the Babe for sure. But they are players you wouldn’t have any problems building a squad around. You may not get Ruth, but does Ted Williams float your boat? How about Barry Bonds? You could play Stan Musial there if you chose. Ralph Kiner’s pop, anyone? The point is Ruth has players who can approach him in left field. Gibson, not so much. The drop-off is so great, how do you pass that up?
If you could play anyone anywhere on the baseball field, Ruth would be your choice. But in a game where you need a catcher, Gibson is the choice.
Oscar Charleston vs. Mickey Mantle
Charleston is compared to Ty Cobb by Richman, but that comparison isn’t fair to Cobb. Charleston is comparable in average, equal in OBP but blows him away with power. Cobb stole more bases, but Charleston’s no slouch with 50. So instead, let’s have Charleston face off against Mickey Mantle. Here you have two center fielders with who can field, hit for average, and hit for power. Mantle’s top card split is .353/.464/.705. Compare that to Charleston’s .391/.474/.694 and you see just how even their lines end up being.
In Charleston you get the better defender, if only slightly. Mantle has a better arm, but Charleston has the better range. Charleston hits for a higher average, but their OBPs are equal. Mantle has more power and Charleston is more of a threat to steal, though the difference between their power is less than the gap between their stealing capabilities.
Overall, Mantle is probably your best option. It isn’t by much, but the extra pop he’ll provide should be more help than the steals Charleston will give you. But it’s close; if you’re a manager who likes a player who is a threat to turn a single into a double every time he goes out there but will still crush the ball, Charleston is your guy.
Satchel Paige vs. Walter Johnson
The Major Leagues did get to face Satchel Paige in meaningful games; just when he was well past his athletic prime. What a prime it must have been when Paige could get hitters out in his forties. In his twenties, he must have been a nightmare to face.
Walter Johnson leaves no doubt; he was a nightmare as his 417 career wins can attest to. He won two MVPs, certainly no small feat for a pitcher. For those who may question his numbers because of the era, his top four single-season adjusted ERAs are in the top 25 all-time. That’s a feat approached by only the likes of Pedro Martinez and Greg Maddux. Johnson is one of the greatest pitchers of all-time.
But is he greater than Paige? Who is the choice for your Strat-O-Matic team?
Paige’s stat line in the game features a 7.5 strikeout-per-nine and 4.89 strikeout-to-walk ratio. No wonder he had a WHIP of .99. Meanwhile, Johnson’s top year came to 7.61 strikeout-per-nine and 4.90 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Yeah, they are practically identical. Johnson’s WHIP is better at .91 and his ERA ends up coming out nearly a run better at 1.36 to 2.23. He has the huge innings pitched advantage over Paige, 370 to 275, but in Strat-O-Matic, that’s somewhat negated as there is no penalty for ending up above the starter’s actual innings for a season.
Johnson’s edge is in the fact that his stamina is for a nine-inning guy. Paige’s is somewhat less; he typically will go eight innings. However, Paige is more flexible. He’s capable of pitching out of the bullpen. That means if you need him in a big spot and he’s rested, you can throw him.
Overall, the duo is pretty even. Johnson gets a slight edge because of the better ERA and slightly better stamina, but it’s not by much. As Hal Richman said of the duo, "They’re on the same level."
The truth is, the vast majority of these matchups will be close because these players were all legends nearly without peer. Often times it will come down to the style of player you prefer, rather than just the stats. Also remember, the matchups listed here are not the only ones to consider. They were chosen because they are prominent in people’s minds when they compare the two leagues.
What do you think? Who would be your selection? Play the game to find out!
Ty Cobb facing Sandy Koufax. Babe Ruth standing in against Bob Gibson. These great matchups have come to life with the All-Time Greats version of Strat-O-Matic. Now Strat-O-Matic has taken it to the next level, adding over 100 Negro Leaguers to create a deeper player pool and allowing us to truly get a glimpse of what the best players across the history of the game can do.
For those who don’t know what I’m talking about, Strat-O-Matic is a dice game that simulates baseball right down to every at-bat. Players are all represented by cards with their outcomes weighted based on their actual abilities. The result is one of the most accurate baseball simulations around. (For more on Strat-O-Matic, check out this piece.)
With the addition of the Negro League card set to the Strat-O-Matic All-Time Greats card set, we get to dream a little broader. Josh Gibson will face Walter Johnson, Babe Ruth will go up against Satchel Paige. But while it’s fun to talk about, the true joy is actually seeing things in action. You have the cards, and you have their backgrounds. With what you know so far, who would you take, given the opportunity?
We’ve got three matchups here to whet your appetite. You’re on the clock Mr. General Manager. Who is your selection?
Josh Gibson vs. Babe Ruth
Here we have the matchup that is already hotly debated, even though the two wouldn’t have actually played much in the same era. The most feared home run hitter of all-time in the Major Leagues or the most feared home run hitter of all-time in the Negro Leagues. So, if you’re starting your team tomorrow, who do you pick?
Whether Gibson’s power was equal to Ruth’s, the fact remains he was close. Against lefties, Gibson had no equal. Strat-O-Matic creator Hal Richman said he would never have a lefty pitcher face Gibson, not even if his name were Lefty Grove.
And Gibson is a catcher; that can’t be understated. As good as Ruth was as a hitter, baseball history is filled with amazing outfielders. The difference between Ruth and the next best left fielder is great, but not as great as Gibson and the next catchers. Would you rather have Josh Gibson and Ted Williams or Babe Ruth and Mike Piazza? There are other players eligible to play catcher, like Lou Boudreau, but those guys aren’t good catchers.
There are good hitters who can play catcher. Piazza is a great hitter who is a poor defensive backstop. Gibson isn’t Johnny Bench defensively, but he’s perfectly acceptable given his incredible bat and above-average arm.
Ruth’s competition in left field is not the Babe for sure. But they are players you wouldn’t have any problems building a squad around. You may not get Ruth, but does Ted Williams float your boat? How about Barry Bonds? You could play Stan Musial there if you chose. Ralph Kiner’s pop, anyone? The point is Ruth has players who can approach him in left field. Gibson, not so much. The drop-off is so great, how do you pass that up?
If you could play anyone anywhere on the baseball field, Ruth would be your choice. But in a game where you need a catcher, Gibson is the choice.
Oscar Charleston vs. Mickey Mantle
Charleston is compared to Ty Cobb by Richman, but that comparison isn’t fair to Cobb. Charleston is comparable in average, equal in OBP but blows him away with power. Cobb stole more bases, but Charleston’s no slouch with 50. So instead, let’s have Charleston face off against Mickey Mantle. Here you have two center fielders with who can field, hit for average, and hit for power. Mantle’s top card split is .353/.464/.705. Compare that to Charleston’s .391/.474/.694 and you see just how even their lines end up being.
In Charleston you get the better defender, if only slightly. Mantle has a better arm, but Charleston has the better range. Charleston hits for a higher average, but their OBPs are equal. Mantle has more power and Charleston is more of a threat to steal, though the difference between their power is less than the gap between their stealing capabilities.
Overall, Mantle is probably your best option. It isn’t by much, but the extra pop he’ll provide should be more help than the steals Charleston will give you. But it’s close; if you’re a manager who likes a player who is a threat to turn a single into a double every time he goes out there but will still crush the ball, Charleston is your guy.
Satchel Paige vs. Walter Johnson
The Major Leagues did get to face Satchel Paige in meaningful games; just when he was well past his athletic prime. What a prime it must have been when Paige could get hitters out in his forties. In his twenties, he must have been a nightmare to face.
Walter Johnson leaves no doubt; he was a nightmare as his 417 career wins can attest to. He won two MVPs, certainly no small feat for a pitcher. For those who may question his numbers because of the era, his top four single-season adjusted ERAs are in the top 25 all-time. That’s a feat approached by only the likes of Pedro Martinez and Greg Maddux. Johnson is one of the greatest pitchers of all-time.
But is he greater than Paige? Who is the choice for your Strat-O-Matic team?
Paige’s stat line in the game features a 7.5 strikeout-per-nine and 4.89 strikeout-to-walk ratio. No wonder he had a WHIP of .99. Meanwhile, Johnson’s top year came to 7.61 strikeout-per-nine and 4.90 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Yeah, they are practically identical. Johnson’s WHIP is better at .91 and his ERA ends up coming out nearly a run better at 1.36 to 2.23. He has the huge innings pitched advantage over Paige, 370 to 275, but in Strat-O-Matic, that’s somewhat negated as there is no penalty for ending up above the starter’s actual innings for a season.
Johnson’s edge is in the fact that his stamina is for a nine-inning guy. Paige’s is somewhat less; he typically will go eight innings. However, Paige is more flexible. He’s capable of pitching out of the bullpen. That means if you need him in a big spot and he’s rested, you can throw him.
Overall, the duo is pretty even. Johnson gets a slight edge because of the better ERA and slightly better stamina, but it’s not by much. As Hal Richman said of the duo, "They’re on the same level."
The truth is, the vast majority of these matchups will be close because these players were all legends nearly without peer. Often times it will come down to the style of player you prefer, rather than just the stats. Also remember, the matchups listed here are not the only ones to consider. They were chosen because they are prominent in people’s minds when they compare the two leagues.
What do you think? Who would be your selection? Play the game to find out!